Solar Tsunami Alert
As Giant Sunspot Erupts

BreakForNews.com, Sat 15th Jan, 2005 12:00ET   
by Fintan Dunne, Editor EXCLUSIVE

Sun     -RealTime Space Readings-     Earth

   Fast-developing sunspot could match historic flares of Nov. '03

   The sunspot grew quickly over four days -Image Spaceweather.com

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    Main Article Continues Below..
    After these latest Updates....

   
    Update Thur Jan 20 10am:
    A Huge X-Class Flare: X.7.1 at 7am GMT- Risk of more X-Class flares.
   Also: Strongest Solar Flare in years may affect satellites
   
   
    Update Wed Jan 19 5am:
   Another X-Class Flare: X.1.5 at 3:30am ET- Risk of more X-Class flares.
   Also: Space Station Astronauts warned of radiation risk
   
    Update Tue Jan 18 5pm:
   Two More M-Class Flares - Continued risk of major X-Class flare.
    Also: Did Massive Solar Flare Take Out NZ satellite?


Stop Press Monday Jan 17 10am:
An X4.2 eruption by spot 10720 beginning just before
7am GMT was moderating by 10am. It seems that we
have again escaped a squarely Earth-directed CME.
-- BreakForNews report
<< This morning's X4.2 Flare >>


   Enlarge





Stop Press Jan 16 12am:
Two large coronal mass ejections now heading
toward Earth after M8 and X2 eruptions by spot 10720.
The first is likely to impact Earth later on Jan 16 and cause
major to very severe geomagnetic storming. The second
will likely reach Earth on Jan. 17.
-- Jan Alvestad report
<< One of two CME's Jan 15th

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Just days ago the sunspot numbered 10720 barely rated a mention. But as it rotated into an earth-facing position, the boiling solar cauldron quickly mushroomed in size to over seven times the diameter of our own planet. Now experienced observers say it has explosive potential for massive solar eruptions aimed at Earth.

By late Friday, the sunspot was large enough to be seen with the unaided eye, and SpaceWeather.com was warning the sunspot posed a threat for strong M-class solar flares. However early today, solar watcher Jan Alvestad reported that the sunspot has already produced an even stronger X-class 1.2 flare at 00:43UT.

It's been busy on the sun. A total of 28 C-class events were recorded Friday --the most C flares in a single day during the current solar cycle 23.

Alvestad also noted that Sunspot 10720 now had the largest penumbra observed in solar cycle 23. In his 5am report he wrote:

"Within this penumbra [is an] extremely strong positive polarity field in the south. That positive polarity area has the longest and largest umbra I have ever observed."

Not only that, but the internal structure of the sunspot is capable of producing spectacular effects, according to Alvestad's evaluation.

Alvestad says the western end the positive umbra is actually in contact with the negative polarity umbra --causing exceptional magnetic shear. When the structure of the magnetic field around a sunspot becomes twisted and sheared, then magnetic field lines can connect with explosive results.

The size of 10720 and its observed structure have significant implications: "Extremely energetic flares, above the X10 class level, are possible," writes Alvestad "This region has the potential to generate flares similar to those observed in October/November 2003."

Such an X-class 10 flare would certainly rank along with the historic flares of late 2003, when a series of nine massive X-class solar eruptions in only 12 days all largely missed Earth.

Coronal mass ejections move like a three-dimensional wave, sweeping outward from the epicenter at the Sun. Even though Earth was not directly struck, two Japanese satellite failures and a power outage in Sweden were blamed on the solar storms.

Those outbursts culminated in an X20 --the largest ever recorded. That remarkable flare emanated from a region of the Sun about 15 times the size of Earth. The sunspot had already rotated around to the back side of the Sun, so the massive outburst was thankfully not pointed at Earth.

We will need the same luck again, as Sunspot 10720 will be aimed towards Earth for the next few days.

Commercial space weather forecast center Spacew.com notes that should eruptions occur, they are : "likely to be associated with Earthward-directed coronal mass ejections."

The estimates of the risk of a significant eruption are taking place against a backdrop of Solar Radio Flux measurements showing a significant rise in recent days.

Should an Earth-directed eruption occur, its effects will depend in part on the orientation of the magnetic field of the ejected solar material. A southward orientation would more deeply penetrate Earth's northward-facing magnetic ionosphere. Despite the massive explosive power of such sunspots, our protective magnetic field means significant effects are unlikely to be felt at the surface of Earth.

In severe storms, people in high-altitude airliners can be exposed to the x-ray component of the eruptions. Owners and insurers of earth-orbiting satellites have the most to loose. They hope to be breathing easier by the end of the coming week, when Sunspot 10720 will no longer have Earth in its sights.