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Ohio's Missing Votes:
The Triad Factor


by Dale Tavris

BreakForNews.com,
31st Dec, 2004 18:00ET

Let's look at the votes difference in each Ohio county compared to 2004 and what would have been expected if Kerry had obtained the same percentage of votes in the county as Gore had in 2000.

Several weeks ago, working in collaboration with Ellen Theisen of
Voters Unite, the main finding of our analysis was that Kerry performed significantly worse, on average, in the 41 counties that used the Triad Government machines than in the 48 counties that used other machines.

This analysis was originally posted on the Democratic Underground (DU) and originally didn’t receive much attention. Last week I posted it again because of the recent suspicions of election fraud surrounding the Triad machines.

This time there was more interest, and I received a good deal of excellent comments and advice from fellow members of the DU, causing me to refine and expand the analysis. Here is a summary and discussion of the main findings:

In the 41 Triad counties combined, the Kerry 2004 vote was 0.95% less than the Gore 2000 vote, whereas in the other 47 counties the Kerry 2004 vote averaged 2.51% more than the Gore 2000 vote.

This finding of course supported (but did not prove) recent allegations of election fraud surrounding the Triad machines.

More specifically, with respect to the allegations of election fraud surrounding the Triad machines, in a recent post on the DU William Pitt explained that the purpose of a recently filed motion joined by John Kerry in an Ohio court was “To make available for sworn deposition testimony a technician for Triad Systems, the company that produced and maintained many of the voting machines used in the Ohio election. The technician has been accused of tampering with the recount process in Hocking County, Ohio, though other counties are believed to have also been involved. Any officers of Triad Systems who have information pertaining to said tampering are likewise subject to subpoena for sworn deposition testimony.


GRATED EXPECTATIONS

A major question that my analysis and the Triad allegations raise is, “How many votes would Kerry have gained if his vote total in the Triad counties was the ‘expected’ total, rather than what was officially recorded. Of course, this begs the question of how to define ‘expected’.

One way to define ‘expected’ would be in comparison with the Gore 2000 vote. Using this definition of ‘expected’, if the Triad counties had given Kerry the same percent of the vote (in comparison with the Gore 2000 vote) in the Triad counties as in the other counties (in other words, if Kerry had received 2.51% more than Gore in the Triad counties, rather than 0.95% less), then he would have received 48,746 more votes than he did. A good start, but a little less than half of what he needs to make up his current deficit.

But that calculation ignores the large discrepancy between the final Ohio exit poll and the official Ohio vote for President in 2004. Kerry lost the official vote by about 2.5%, whereas the final exit poll showed him winning by 4.2%. The difference is 6.7% -- a difference so large that the probability against this happening by chance is about 1000 to one.

In order to obtain an ‘expected’ Kerry vote for the Triad counties that accounts for the exit poll discrepancy as well as Kerry’s relatively poor showing in the Triad counties, 6.7% would have to be added to the 2.5% excess Kerry vote recorded by the non-Triad counties, giving a total of 9.2%.

If the Triad machines had recorded a 9.2% greater total than Gore had in 2000, instead of 0.95% less, that would have given Kerry 143,412 more votes in the Triad counties, more than enough to win Ohio and the Presidency. Of course, correction for the exit poll discrepancy would also have given him far more votes in the non-Triad counties as well – suggesting that fraud may well have occurred also in some of those counties.

In summary, it is the exit poll discrepancy rather than the Triad voting machine analysis which provides the best statistical evidence that John Kerry won the Ohio election. What the Triad voting machine analysis does is lend some statistical support to the allegations of election fraud surrounding the Triad machines.

Read a Democratic Underground Discussion on this topic

See also:
Teflon Kerry: More Slick Moves On Election Fraud by Fintan Dunne
Kerry Preparing Grounds to Unconcede by Fintan Dunne, BreakForNews.com

Kerry to Enter Ohio Recount Fray By William Rivers Pitt
Kerry votes switched to Bush and ballots pre-punched for Bush by Dr. Werner Lange
Battles over Recount amidst evidence of potential criminal activity by Fitrakis et. al.
Certifiable election results by Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D.
Selma to Ohio: Report from the Conyers Hearing By William Rivers Pitt

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