Ohio's Missing Votes:
The Triad Factor
31st Dec, 2004 18:00ET
Let's look at the votes difference in each Ohio county compared
to 2004 and what would have been expected if Kerry had obtained the
same percentage of votes in the county as Gore had in 2000.
Several weeks ago, working in collaboration with Ellen Theisen of
the main finding of our analysis was that Kerry performed significantly
worse, on average, in the 41 counties that used the Triad Government
machines than in the 48 counties that used other machines.
This analysis was originally
posted on the Democratic Underground (DU) and originally didnt
receive much attention. Last week I posted
it again because of the recent suspicions of election fraud surrounding
the Triad machines.
This time there was more interest, and I received a good deal of excellent
comments and advice from fellow members of the DU, causing me to refine
and expand the analysis. Here is a summary and discussion of the main
In the 41 Triad
counties combined, the Kerry 2004 vote was 0.95% less than
the Gore 2000 vote, whereas in the other 47 counties the Kerry
2004 vote averaged 2.51% more than the Gore 2000 vote.
This finding of course supported (but did not prove) recent allegations
of election fraud surrounding the Triad machines.
More specifically, with respect to the allegations of election fraud
surrounding the Triad machines, in a recent post on the DU William
that the purpose of a recently filed motion joined by John Kerry in
an Ohio court was To make available for sworn deposition
testimony a technician for Triad Systems, the company that produced
and maintained many of the voting machines used in the Ohio election.
The technician has been accused of tampering with the recount process
in Hocking County, Ohio, though other counties are believed to have
also been involved. Any officers of Triad Systems who have information
pertaining to said tampering are likewise subject to subpoena for
sworn deposition testimony.
A major question that my analysis and the Triad allegations raise
is, How many votes would Kerry have gained if his vote total
in the Triad counties was the expected total, rather than
what was officially recorded. Of course, this begs the question of
how to define expected.
One way to define expected would be in comparison with
the Gore 2000 vote. Using this definition of expected,
if the Triad counties had given Kerry the same percent
of the vote (in comparison with the Gore 2000 vote) in the Triad counties
as in the other counties (in other words, if Kerry had
received 2.51% more than Gore in the Triad counties, rather
than 0.95% less), then he would have received 48,746
more votes than he did. A good start, but a little less than half
of what he needs to make up his current deficit.
But that calculation ignores the large discrepancy between the final
Ohio exit poll and the official Ohio vote for President in 2004. Kerry
lost the official vote by about 2.5%, whereas the final exit
poll showed him winning by 4.2%. The difference is 6.7%
-- a difference so large that the probability against this happening
by chance is about 1000 to one.
In order to obtain an expected Kerry vote for the Triad
counties that accounts for the exit poll discrepancy as well as Kerrys
relatively poor showing in the Triad counties, 6.7% would have
to be added to the 2.5% excess Kerry vote recorded by the non-Triad
counties, giving a total of 9.2%.
If the Triad machines had recorded a 9.2% greater total than
Gore had in 2000, instead of 0.95% less, that would have given
Kerry 143,412 more votes in the Triad counties, more than enough
to win Ohio and the Presidency. Of course, correction for the exit
poll discrepancy would also have given him far more votes in the non-Triad
counties as well suggesting that fraud may well have occurred
also in some of those counties.
In summary, it is the exit poll discrepancy rather than the Triad
voting machine analysis which provides the best statistical evidence
that John Kerry won the Ohio election. What the Triad voting machine
analysis does is lend some statistical support to the allegations
of election fraud surrounding the Triad machines.
a Democratic Underground Discussion on this topic
Kerry: More Slick Moves On Election Fraud by Fintan Dunne
Preparing Grounds to Unconcede by Fintan Dunne, BreakForNews.com
to Enter Ohio Recount Fray By William Rivers Pitt
votes switched to Bush and ballots pre-punched for Bush by
Dr. Werner Lange
over Recount amidst evidence of potential criminal activity
by Fitrakis et. al.
election results by Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D.
to Ohio: Report from the Conyers Hearing By William Rivers
More Slick Moves On Election Fraud
Under cover of John Edwards' late night promise to "count
every vote," Kerry's lawyers have been adeptly pursuing evidence
that could reverse the election outcome, while keeping their candidate
so Teflon-coated that he remains untouchable by "sore loser,"
or "conspiracy theory" jibes.
In the last few days, Kerry has launched a further escalation
of his legal involvement, while also leaving casual observers
even more convinced that Bush is safely ensconced in office. It
was yet another political dance routine with Kerry's now familiar
two steps forward, one step back footwork.
Discussion about this article
Files to Protect Vote Evidence
Grounds to Unconcede
If you haven't been following John Kerry closely,
get ready to hear of surprising developments.
The vote-defrauded, potential president-in-waiting has just
indicated that the validity of George Bush's reelection is no
longer a given. Kerry's lawyer confirmed that Kerry will be
seeking to expedite court proceedings in an ongoing recount
suit by the Green and Libertarian parties. That might sound
like just another "count every vote" exercise by Kerry,
were it not for two important details.
Discussion about this article Also
text of statement by Kerry Lawyer
No Holiday for Vote Thieves
John Conyers, Jr., the ranking Democrat on the
House Judiciary Committee is confident that a few U.S. Senators
will join House members on January 6 to question the November
Conyers has thrown a spotlight on GOP vote crimes. How 'high'
these crimes can be connected is another story. Those who act
in concert with others to violate the Voting Rights Act or related
laws should be confronted with the prospect of conspiracy charges
in addition to criminal penalties (prison time) for individual
offenses. Thatís the way gangsters are brought down, every day.
Video of a segment covering
the a statement Thur 23rd to MSNBC's Countdown by
John Kerry's Ohio Laywer.
World First Print of
latest Vote Fraud Story
of Recount Fraud Plans
House Judiciary Cmte., meeting in Ohio to investigate election
vote irregularities, has heard that preparations to conduct
a fraudulent recount are underway statewide.
early testimony, chairman of the forum, Rep. John Conyers heard
from Green party presidential candidate, David Cobb say that
employees of punch card vendor, Triad Governmental Systems,
Inc. are attempting to orchestrate a fraudulent recount of precincts
likely to be included in the first phase of the recount process.
Gets "Hands On" with
Recount Letter to Ohio Counties
Dear Director and Deputy Director:
Enclosed please find a copy of a letter personally signed
by John Kerry appointing me as his legal counsel, with full
authority to act for him and John Edwards, including
appointing witnesses to attend the recount.
On behalf of John Kerry and John Edwards I am making the following
requests re. the recount... rest
tells Jackson to turn up heat
On Sunday, John Kerry urged Jesse Jackson to take
a more active role in investigating vote irregularities like:
92,000 over and undervote ballots; provisional ballots; and
independent analysis of the op-scan voting machines.
Kennedy Won Hawaii
In the 1960 presidential election, Hawaii's 3 electoral
votes were cast for Senator John F. Kennedy even
though the Republican electors supporting Vice-
President Richard M. Nixon had been certified
This little noticed fact was mentioned
by Supreme Ct. Justice Anthony M.
Kennedy in dissenting Bush v. Gore.
Fri 31 Dec
non-recount: fraud, theft and judicial contempt
Sue To Get
Second Ohio Recount
Will Object to Ohio --Requests Senate Allies
CNN Exit Poll
Election Fraud Focus
News Takes On
Election Fraud Movement
Detail Recount Flaws
Kerry: Slick Moves
News Takes On
Election Fraud Movement
"Nearly two months after Election Day, some John Kerry's die-hard
supporters have yet to give up"
Court Justice, Sworn In
by Chief Justice Moyer
BreakForNews Kerry Unconcede Story
Letter to John Kerry
on Stolen Election 2004
by Bob Fertik
Supreme Court TV Ads
--orders Judge also
Considering Federal Appeal of NM Recount
scandal in Texas
Fake Recount Ends, Shows Piddling Change
GOP election officials now ducking subpoenas
Doing the Right Thing
seek to do a glorious thing" -Jesse Jackson
Files to Protect
Ohio Vote Evidence
Court Protection to
vote in Lucas Cty.
by Kerry attorney explained
Motive, and Opportunity
Blackwell's Role Clear
Making it harder to vote in Ohio and harder to recount.
of 30,000 unknown amid Nuke Station Fears
lawyer: does re-election warrant public trust? Keith Olbermann
Vote Fraud Conspiracy
Raw Story Responds
the Ohio Recount
Christ. Sci. Monitor
Internet Vote Fraud 'conspiracy theories'
Your Brain Cell?'
Go Visit Your Own Damm website!
Night Bush Was
Going Down Newsweek
to Reduce Voter Fraud
Myth of a
This is the
uncensored by ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, MSNBC, FOX.
See what America really thinks when allowed to
speak without censorship.
Gallup Poll Finds
Iraq is Top Concern
--Not Bush 'Values'
Nov 2 Exit Poll
Values 22% of Voters
New Gallup Poll
Iraq 23% of Voters
Ohio's new Recount
votes go to Kerry by 4%
more than Nov 2 count
United States of Ukraine
--Kerry Won PDF Analysis