More Stories:
BreakForNews Homepage

Ohio's Missing Votes:
The Triad Factor

by Dale Tavris,
31st Dec, 2004 18:00ET

Let's look at the votes difference in each Ohio county compared to 2004 and what would have been expected if Kerry had obtained the same percentage of votes in the county as Gore had in 2000.

Several weeks ago, working in collaboration with Ellen Theisen of
Voters Unite, the main finding of our analysis was that Kerry performed significantly worse, on average, in the 41 counties that used the Triad Government machines than in the 48 counties that used other machines.

This analysis was originally posted on the Democratic Underground (DU) and originally didn’t receive much attention. Last week I posted it again because of the recent suspicions of election fraud surrounding the Triad machines.

This time there was more interest, and I received a good deal of excellent comments and advice from fellow members of the DU, causing me to refine and expand the analysis. Here is a summary and discussion of the main findings:

In the 41 Triad counties combined, the Kerry 2004 vote was 0.95% less than the Gore 2000 vote, whereas in the other 47 counties the Kerry 2004 vote averaged 2.51% more than the Gore 2000 vote.

This finding of course supported (but did not prove) recent allegations of election fraud surrounding the Triad machines.

More specifically, with respect to the allegations of election fraud surrounding the Triad machines, in a recent post on the DU William Pitt explained that the purpose of a recently filed motion joined by John Kerry in an Ohio court was “To make available for sworn deposition testimony a technician for Triad Systems, the company that produced and maintained many of the voting machines used in the Ohio election. The technician has been accused of tampering with the recount process in Hocking County, Ohio, though other counties are believed to have also been involved. Any officers of Triad Systems who have information pertaining to said tampering are likewise subject to subpoena for sworn deposition testimony.


A major question that my analysis and the Triad allegations raise is, “How many votes would Kerry have gained if his vote total in the Triad counties was the ‘expected’ total, rather than what was officially recorded. Of course, this begs the question of how to define ‘expected’.

One way to define ‘expected’ would be in comparison with the Gore 2000 vote. Using this definition of ‘expected’, if the Triad counties had given Kerry the same percent of the vote (in comparison with the Gore 2000 vote) in the Triad counties as in the other counties (in other words, if Kerry had received 2.51% more than Gore in the Triad counties, rather than 0.95% less), then he would have received 48,746 more votes than he did. A good start, but a little less than half of what he needs to make up his current deficit.

But that calculation ignores the large discrepancy between the final Ohio exit poll and the official Ohio vote for President in 2004. Kerry lost the official vote by about 2.5%, whereas the final exit poll showed him winning by 4.2%. The difference is 6.7% -- a difference so large that the probability against this happening by chance is about 1000 to one.

In order to obtain an ‘expected’ Kerry vote for the Triad counties that accounts for the exit poll discrepancy as well as Kerry’s relatively poor showing in the Triad counties, 6.7% would have to be added to the 2.5% excess Kerry vote recorded by the non-Triad counties, giving a total of 9.2%.

If the Triad machines had recorded a 9.2% greater total than Gore had in 2000, instead of 0.95% less, that would have given Kerry 143,412 more votes in the Triad counties, more than enough to win Ohio and the Presidency. Of course, correction for the exit poll discrepancy would also have given him far more votes in the non-Triad counties as well – suggesting that fraud may well have occurred also in some of those counties.

In summary, it is the exit poll discrepancy rather than the Triad voting machine analysis which provides the best statistical evidence that John Kerry won the Ohio election. What the Triad voting machine analysis does is lend some statistical support to the allegations of election fraud surrounding the Triad machines.

Read a Democratic Underground Discussion on this topic

See also:
Teflon Kerry: More Slick Moves On Election Fraud by Fintan Dunne
Kerry Preparing Grounds to Unconcede by Fintan Dunne,

Kerry to Enter Ohio Recount Fray By William Rivers Pitt
Kerry votes switched to Bush and ballots pre-punched for Bush by Dr. Werner Lange
Battles over Recount amidst evidence of potential criminal activity by Fitrakis et. al.
Certifiable election results by Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D.
Selma to Ohio: Report from the Conyers Hearing By William Rivers Pitt

  Related Stories
More Slick Moves On Election Fraud

Under cover of John Edwards' late night promise to "count every vote," Kerry's lawyers have been adeptly pursuing evidence that could reverse the election outcome, while keeping their candidate so Teflon-coated that he remains untouchable by "sore loser," or "conspiracy theory" jibes.

In the last few days, Kerry has launched a further escalation of his legal involvement, while also leaving casual observers even more convinced that Bush is safely ensconced in office. It was yet another political dance routine with Kerry's now familiar two steps forward, one step back footwork.

DU Discussion about this article

12/27 Kerry Files to Protect Vote Evidence
Kerry Preparing
Grounds to Unconcede


If you haven't been following John Kerry closely, get ready to hear of surprising developments.

The vote-defrauded, potential president-in-waiting has just indicated that the validity of George Bush's reelection is no longer a given. Kerry's lawyer confirmed that Kerry will be seeking to expedite court proceedings in an ongoing recount suit by the Green and Libertarian parties. That might sound like just another "count every vote" exercise by Kerry, were it not for two important details.

DU Discussion about this article   Also here

12/27: Full text of statement by Kerry Lawyer
No Holiday for Vote Thieves

John Conyers, Jr., the ranking Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee is confident that a few U.S. Senators will join House members on January 6 to question the November 2 election.

Conyers has thrown a spotlight on GOP vote crimes. How 'high' these crimes can be connected is another story. Those who act in concert with others to violate the Voting Rights Act or related laws should be confronted with the prospect of conspiracy charges in addition to criminal penalties (prison time) for individual offenses. Thatís the way gangsters are brought down, every day.
Kerry Lawyer Questions
Bush Reelection

Video of a segment covering
the a statement Thur 23rd to MSNBC's Countdown by
John Kerry's Ohio Laywer.

View Here

Conyers, others may
challenge Bush 6th Jan

"He and others in Congress are considering formally challenging Ohioís vote, Jan 6th."

      Audio & BFN Comment mp3
      Video wmv
Our World First Print of
latest Vote Fraud Story


mp3 or

Ohio Forum Hears
of Recount Fraud Plans

The House Judiciary Cmte., meeting in Ohio to investigate election vote irregularities, has heard that preparations to conduct a fraudulent recount are underway statewide.

In early testimony, chairman of the forum, Rep. John Conyers heard from Green party presidential candidate, David Cobb say that employees of punch card vendor, Triad Governmental Systems, Inc. are attempting to orchestrate a fraudulent recount of precincts likely to be included in the first phase of the recount process.
Kerry Gets "Hands On" with
Recount Letter to Ohio Counties

Dear Director and Deputy Director:

Enclosed please find a copy of a letter personally signed by John Kerry appointing me as his legal counsel, with full authority to act for him and John Edwards, including appointing witnesses to attend the recount.
On behalf of John Kerry and John Edwards I am making the following requests re. the recount...  rest of letter

  Also: Kerry tells Jackson to turn up heat
  On Sunday, John Kerry urged Jesse Jackson to take a more active role in investigating vote irregularities like: 92,000 over and undervote ballots; provisional ballots; and independent analysis of the op-scan voting machines.
How Kennedy Won Hawaii

In the 1960 presidential election, Hawaii's 3 electoral
votes were cast for Senator John F. Kennedy even
though the Republican electors supporting Vice-
President Richard M. Nixon had been certified
the winners.

This little noticed fact was mentioned
by Supreme Ct. Justice Anthony M.
Kennedy in dissenting Bush v. Gore


  News Bytes

     by Kathy McMahon
     Fri 31 Dec

Ohio's non-recount: fraud, theft and judicial contempt

Green/Libs Sue To Get
Second Ohio Recount

Conyers Will Object to Ohio --Requests Senate Allies

Interesting CNN Exit Poll

Interesting Poll Explained

Howard Dean Backs
Election Fraud Focus

Fox News Takes On
Election Fraud Movement

Ohio Election Monitors
Detail Recount Flaws

Teflon Kerry: Slick Moves

Fox News Takes On
Election Fraud Movement

"Nearly two months after Election Day, some John Kerry's die-hard supporters have yet to give up"

Ohio's Newest Supreme
Court Justice, Sworn In
by Chief Justice Moyer

Bob Fertik Notes Our
BreakForNews Kerry Unconcede Story

Election Update &
Arnebeck Case

Open Letter to John Kerry
on Stolen Election 2004

by Bob Fertik

Tell Who Bankrolled
Supreme Court TV Ads
--orders Judge

Cobb Considering Federal Appeal of NM Recount

John Conyers attacked

Maxine Waters attacked

Olbermann Wins "Award"

Election scandal in Texas

Ohio Fake Recount Ends, Shows Piddling Change

Ohio GOP election officials now ducking subpoenas

Doing the Right Thing

"We seek to do a glorious thing" -Jesse Jackson

Kerry Files to Protect
Ohio Vote Evidence

Blackwell Seeks
Court Protection to
Avoid Testifying

Rigged vote in Lucas Cty.

Troublesome statements
by Kerry attorney explained

Triad has Means,
Motive, and Opportunity

Blackwell's Role Clear
Making it harder to vote in Ohio and harder to recount.

Election Day Leftovers

Fate of 30,000 unknown amid Nuke Station Fears

Kerry lawyer: does re-election warrant public trust? Keith Olbermann

Olberman Wades Into
Vote Fraud Conspiracy

And Raw Story Responds

What Counts in
the Ohio Recount

Christ. Sci. Monitor

Ohio Recount Stirs

M. Moore Dismisses
Internet Vote Fraud 'conspiracy theories'

'Dude, Where's
Your Brain Cell?'

Dude, Go Visit Your Own Damm website!

The Night Bush Was
Going Down

Federal Standards Needed
to Reduce Voter Fraud

The Myth of a
Divided America

This is the
real America,
uncensored by ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, MSNBC, FOX.
See what America really thinks when allowed to
speak without censorship.

New Gallup Poll Finds
Iraq is Top Concern
--Not Bush 'Values'

Nov 2 Exit Poll
Values 22% of Voters
Econ/Jobs 20%
Terrorism 19%
Iraq 15%

New Gallup Poll
Iraq 23% of Voters
Econ/Jobs 12%
Terrorism 12%
Values 10%

Media overplayed
"moral values"

Ohio's new Recount
votes go to Kerry by 4%
than Nov 2 count

United States of Ukraine
--Kerry Won
 PDF Analysis

  More Stories...


More Stories:
BreakForNews Homepage

                                                          Home                   Last 5 Days   NewsBytes   Archive   Links  
Original Content Copyright © 2004