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Yellowstone Survival

 
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Hocus Locus



Joined: 22 Sep 2006
Posts: 850
Location: Lost in anamnesis, cannot forget my way out

PostPosted: Mon Jan 01, 2007 12:20 am    Post subject: Yellowstone Survival Reply with quote

YELLOWSTONE SURVIVAL

Rumpl4skn sig'd as he wrote:
The future looks bleak. I think my New Year's Resolution is going to be 640 x 480.

Don't do it man. You'll miss the full effect of things like this,



Yellowstone is the most clear-and-present (natural) danger on Earth right now. It is global, cataclysmic and to the North American aerial long-line transmissive power grid, an overnight slate-wiper. Take your children to see it before the madness begins, so they may gain value in the world that will some day be as tellers of the tale of what it once was, in the days when they will be surrounded by those who only know what it has become.

Because the tales travellers tell, and the skills travellers bring, the only currency in the coming dark age.

If you are within 1,000 miles of Ground Zero (Yellowstone) it would be good to reach out to family and establish consensus on a Yellowstone eruption plan, where you'll meet up after, what everyone will bring. If preserving technology is a personal ideal, I would suggest gathering in a Northern location around a nuclear power station or natural source of geothermal energy. Long Winter overland treks being the best natural defence against populations on the move during the first Winter's purge. But wherever you may be, unless you choose the safest most northernmost and southernmost reaches of the planet, you and your family must be prepared to fight for your very survival.

Acquire, and nurture in your children, those basic skills of survival and combat that are in themselves empowering to the spirit. Whether bad comes or not character is built thereby. This is a win-win suggestion. Also seek to gather computer parts, store optical media safely and archive all the collected knowledge of our kind that the Internet has allowed us to share, whether we have bothered to copy for ourselves or not.

For many of us who are Internet-aware and have the opportunity to stockpile Knowledge, those cherished bits of modern technology will ensure the survival of you and your children and guarantee a best-possible life, it will put you in a position of being able to establish schools, local centers for learning and reason, it will help you to combat the forces of irrational fundamentalism and dogmatic aggression that will arise, and it will help us to rebuild.

If none of this comes to pass, a digital archive of the Works of Humankind makes a great stocking-stuffer.

You have been warned. Perhaps some day you'll wish to thank me or laugh at me when remembering this message. Regardless -- take care and the best of possible futures to you, my friends.

Quote:
Yellowstone caldera rising ‘unprecedented’ 22-Dec-2006

YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK (AP) - A geologist says some parts of the continually shifting, collapsed volcano at the center of the Yellowstone National Park are swelling unusually fast.

Bob Smith, one of the leading researchers into Yellowstone’s geology, presented some of his findings at the American Geological Union meeting in San Francisco last week.

Smith and other geologists from the University of Utah are particularly interested in two subterranean lava domes deep beneath the Yellowstone caldera.

“We’ve gone to this really pronounced, and I would say unprecedented, uplift of the caldera,” he said.

But he said any talk of an eruption would be far-fetched.

In fact, it’s typical for Yellowstone’s caldera to rise and fall. Scientists say it’s been happening for at least 15,000 years, with some shifts of more than 10 feet.

Portions of the caldera rose more than 3 feet between 1923 and 1984 and then dropped nearly 8 inches from 1985 to 1995. Measurements in 1995 and 1996 showed the caldera rising again before starting to fall in 1997.

The latest upward motion has been unusual for its speed.

Using data collected on the ground and from satellites, scientists say the Mallard Lake Dome, west of Yellowstone Lake’s West Thumb, has risen 4 centimeters a year since the middle of 2004. Meanwhile, the Sour Creek Dome north of Fishing Bridge has risen about 6 centimeters a year.

Smith said an infusion of magma may be heating up groundwater and causing the ground to bulge.

“It’s like inflating the balloon, but the balloon is capped,” he said.

___
Tujunga's modern sewage system was relatively new. The territory was dotted with abandoned septic tanks, and one of these was behind Dan Forrester's house. It was uphill. You can't have everything.

The wind screamed. The rain tasted both salty and gritty. The lightning guided him, but badly. Dan wrestled the wheelbarrow uphill, looking for the septic tank. He finally found it, full of rain because he'd removed the lid yesterday evening.

The books went in in handfuls. He pushed them into the aged sewage with a plumber's helper, gently. Before he left he broke open an emergency flare and left it on the upended lid.

He made his second trip in a bathing suit. The warm lashing rain was less unpleasant than soaked and sticky clothes. The third trip he wore the hat. He almost fainted coming back. That wouldn't do. He'd better have a rest. He took off the wet suit and stretched out on the couch, pulled a blanket over himself... and fell deeply asleep.

He woke in a pandemonium of thunder and wind and rain. He was horribly stiff. He got to his feet an inch at a time, and kept moving toward the kitchen, talking encouragement to himself. Breakfast first, then back to work. His watch had stopped. He didn't know if it was day or night.

Fill the wheelbarrow half full, no more. Wheel it through slippery mud, uphill. Next trip, remember to take another flare. Dump the books by armfuls, then push them down into the old sewage. Unlikely that anyone, moron or genius, would look for such a treasure here, even if he knew it existed. The smell hardly bothered him; but these hurricane winds couldn't last forever, and then the trove would be doubly safe. Back for another load...

Once he slipped, and slid a fair distance downhill through the mud with the empty wheelbarrow tugging him along. He crossed just enough sharp rocks to dissuade him from trying it again.

Then: last load. Finished. He wrestled with the lid, rested, tried again. He'd had a hell of a time getting it off, and he had a hell of a time getting it back on. Then downhill with the empty barrow. In a day his tracks would be flooded away. He thought of burying the last evidence of his project -- the wheelbarrow -- but just the thought of all that work made him hurt all over.

He dried himself with all the towels in the bathroom. Why not? He used the same towels to dry the rain gear. He got more from the linen closet. He stuffed hand towels into the boots before he put them in the car, with the raincoat and the hat and more dry towels. The old house leaked now; he wondered if the old car would too. Ultimately it wouldn't matter. Ultimately he would have to abandon the car and set out on foot, in the rain, carrying a backpack for the first time in his life. He'd be safe, or dead, long before this rain began to think about stopping.

Into the car went the new backpack he'd packed day before yesterday, including a hypo and some insulin. There were two more such medical packages elsewhere in the car, because someone might steal the whole backpack. Or someone might steal the hypos... but surely they would leave him one.

The car was an ancient heap, and nothing in it would attract thieves. He'd included a few items to buy his life, if and when it could be bought. There was one really valuable item; it would look like trash to the average looter, but it might get him to safety.

Daniel Forrester, Ph.D., was a middle-aged man with no useful profession. His doctorate would never again be worth as much as a cup of coffee. His hands were soft, he weighed too much, he was a diabetic. Friends had told him that he often underestimated his own worth; well, that was bad too, because it restricted his bargaining ability. He knew how to make insulin. It took a laboratory and the killing of one sheep per month.

Yesterday Dan Forrester had become an expensive luxury.

What was in his backpack was something else again. It was a book, wrapped in plastic like the others: Volume Two of The Way Things Work. Volume One was in the septic tank.


~Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle, "Lucifer's Hammer"
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Hocus Locus



Joined: 22 Sep 2006
Posts: 850
Location: Lost in anamnesis, cannot forget my way out

PostPosted: Sat Mar 17, 2007 11:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I enjoyed BBC's drama 'Supervolcano' (and the associated documentary) ... and spotted an interesting moment.

Before the big boom, Lieberman -- a character at first noted for a suave demeanor downplaying the possibility of an eruption -- is in Washington DC. He is asked by several Important People to make a pointed and direct public statement which virtually 'rules out' an imminent eruption. He declines, since his team were noting, day by day, telltale signs; and as a scientist he (now) felt, given the immensity of the evacuation that might be necessary -- such a direct statement was clearly a breach of personal, scientific and moral ethic.

A tenseness in the room -- in which Those Present realize that this one credible man was standing in the way of delivering a strong, unified "move along folks, everything's all right" message. Then one of the Persons asks the others to leave the room, to have a moment's private conference with Professor Lieberman. Then the scene cuts away -- we do not get to witness what I believe to be a true Bill Hicks Moment.

At the press conference, someone else lays out the slim odds, scoffs at the warning signs. A savvy reporter addresses Lieberman directly, all know he is the one who matters, and it is his moment to speak. He's asked if he agrees with the statement that was just given (nothing to worry about folks!) and says simply, "I concur."

Later as he was flying back his brother-in-law is on the same plane, quips "I assume you had a gun to your head." Lieberman replies, "I guess you could say that."

Around the time of the press conference, his wife and child were airborne -- flying East en route from California to London -- probably passing directly through the very corridor affected by Yellowstone at that time. What was whispered into his ear?

Clever folks, these writers.

Quote:
Activity discovered at Yellowstone supervolcano
Caldera bulged and deflated significantly during study period
By Sara Goudarzi // Staff Writer // Updated: 2:19 p.m. ET March 15, 2007

One of the largest supervolcanoes in the world lies beneath Yellowstone National Park and scientists say activity there is increasing.

Though the Yellowstone system, which spans parts of Wyoming, Montana and Idaho, is active and expected to eventually blow its top, scientists don’t think it will erupt any time soon. Supervolcanoes can sleep for centuries or millennia before producing incredibly massive eruptions that can drop ash across an entire continent.

Yet significant activity continues beneath the surface. And the activity has been increasing lately, scientists have discovered. In addition, the nearby Teton Range, in a total surprise, is getting shorter.

The findings, reported this month in the Journal of Geophysical Research - Solid Earth, suggest that a slow and gradual movement caused by a giant hotspot of molten rock beneath a volcano can shape a landscape more than sudden ground movements caused by the volcano’s frequent earthquakes.

For the past 17 years, researchers used GPS satellites to monitor the horizontal and vertical motion of the Yellowstone caldera - a huge volcanic crater formed by a super-eruption more than 600,000 years ago.

The movement of the caldera indicates what’s going on underground where magma, or molten rock, is stored for the next eruption. When magma builds up, some of it starts to rise toward the surface, where it presses against the floor of the caldera. The pressure makes the caldera bulge, while a decrease in pressure makes it sink.

The 45-by-30-mile caldera bulged and deflated significantly during the study period.

“We think it’s a combination of magma being intruded under the caldera and hot water released from the magma being pressurized because it’s trapped,” said lead study author Robert Smith from the University of Utah. “I don’t believe this is evidence for an impending volcanic eruption, but it would be prudent to keep monitoring the volcano.”

More energy

The researchers also found that 10 times more energy goes into producing the slow and gradual ground deformations at Yellowstone than goes into ground movements released suddenly by the area’s frequent quakes.

Data shows that the caldera floor sank 4.4 inches from 1987 until 1995. From 1995 until 2000, the northwest rim of the caldera rose about 3 inches, followed by another 1.4-inch rise until 2003. Then between 2000 and 2003, the caldera floor sank a little more than an inch.

And then from 2004 to 2006 the central caldera floor rose faster than ever, springing up nearly 7 inches during the three-year span.

“The rate is unprecedented, at least in terms of what scientists have been able to observe in Yellowstone,” Smith said.

Abnormal fault

These results could explain another surprise finding: The ground along Teton fault - an active fault running 40 miles north-south along the eastern base of Teton Range in the Grand Teton National Park in Wyoming just south of Yellowstone - moves in the opposite direction compared to what’s been previously thought.

Typically, when a big earthquake takes place on a normal fault such as Teton, the ground is pulled apart. This kind of extension or stretching causes valleys to drop downward and mountains to rise upwards. Thousands of earthquakes over millions of years built the mountains that comprise the Teton Range today.

But recent measurements showed a different trend. Researchers found that just the opposite is happening with Jackson Hole - the valley below the Teton. The valley is rising up slowly and the mountains are dropping down.

What the researchers think is happening, on a short-term basis at least, is that the bulging Yellowstone hotspot north of the Tetons is pushing against the north edge of Jackson Hole and jamming it against the mountains. (This is also causing the southwest part of the Yellowstone plateau, under the hotspot, to slide downhill at a rate of one-sixth of an inch each year.).

“The textbook model for a normal fault is not what’s happening at the Teton fault,” Smith said. “The mountains are going down relative to the valley going up. That’s a total surprise.”

This motion, according to researchers, is also expected to produce bigger quakes, confusing the picture of how earthquakes occur in that area.

"21st most dangerous" my ass. Some real junk-threat-assessment here.

Quote:
Yellowstone eruption threat 'high'
((( But not considered 'immediately imminent' -- yet. ~HL )))
Kilauea, Mount St. Helens, Rainier, Hood, Shasta top list

YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK, Wyo. - The Yellowstone caldera has been classified a high threat for volcanic eruption, according to a report from the U.S. Geological Survey.

Yellowstone ranks 21st most dangerous of the 169 volcano centers in the United States, according to the Geological Survey's first-ever comprehensive review of the nation's volcanoes.

Kilauea in Hawaii received the highest overall threat score followed by Mount St. Helens and Mount Rainier in Washington, Mount Hood in Oregon and Mount Shasta in California. Kilauea has been erupting since 1983. Mount St. Helens, which erupted catastrophically in 1980, began venting again in 2004.

Those volcanoes fall within the very high threat group, which includes 18 systems. Yellowstone is classified with 36 others as high threat.

Recurring earthquake swarms, swelling and falling ground, and changes in hydrothermal features are cited in the report as evidence of unrest at Yellowstone.

The report calls for better monitoring of the 55 volcanoes in the very high and high threat categories to track seismic activity, ground bulging, gas emissions and hydrologic changes.

University of Utah geology professor Robert Smith, who monitors earthquakes and volcanic activity in Yellowstone, said more real-time monitoring should be helpful. "We've really been stressing over the last couple of years that the USGS should consider hazards as a very high priority in their future," he said. "We need to get the public's confidence and the perception that we're doing it right."

The university has joined the Geological Survey and Yellowstone National Park in creating the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, which uses ground-based instruments throughout the region and satellite data to monitor volcanic and earthquake unrest in the world's first national park.

The USGS report recognizes Yellowstone as an unusual hazard because of the millions of people who visit the park and walk amid features created by North America's largest volcanic system, Smith said, a status he has been advocating for years.

Smith does not paint the devastating picture portrayed in a recent TV docudrama but said smaller threats exist. For example, a lower-scale hydrothermal blast could scald tourists strolling along boardwalks.

Emissions of toxic gases from the park's geothermal features also pose a threat. Five bison dropped dead last year after inhaling poisonous gases trapped near the ground due to cold, calm weather near Norris Geyser Basin.

Stepped up monitoring and a new 24-hour watch office could lead to more timely warnings and help avoid human catastrophes at Yellowstone and nationally, according to the USGS.

Forty-five eruptions, including 15 cases of notable volcanic unrest, have been documented at 33 volcanoes in the U.S. since 1980, according to the report, released April 29.

___
No matter what promises you make on the campaign trail - blah, blah, blah - when you win, you go into this smoky room with the twelve industrialist, capitalist scumfucks that got you in there, and this little screen comes down... and it's a shot of the Kennedy assassination from an angle you've never seen before, which looks suspiciously off the grassy knoll.... And then the screen comes up, the lights come on, and they say to the new president, 'Any questions?'

"Just what my agenda is."


~Bill Hicks, on "The Moment"

___
All civilization has from time to time become a thin crust over a volcano of revolution.
~Havelock Ellis
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DrewTerry
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 25, 2007 5:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Right on, Hocus - Thanks for putting this information on the forum. I've been noticing significantly more documentaries on volcanoes and supervolcanoes lately - not just on the history & discovery brand channels but also on the high definition only cable channel.

I assumed they were the ongoing fear & loathing scare tactics to keep the public on the edge all the time, yet I also cannot ignore the unmistakeable intuitive feeling that something of this sort will happen sooner than later. I don't wish or hope for it; in fact, I have never wanted to be more wrong than about all of what seems likely to happen sooner than later.

However, nature is as nature does, and humanity has had their head in the sand for a long time now. No matter what wars may be waged, psychological or otherwise, there is no power & control by which human beings can exert their will over the force of creation.

If not for the timetables of the Mayans and the Transformation of Consciousness I would probably be quite skeptical, but something of a greater magnitude than anyone alive has seen before will parallel the events surrounding WW I and the Influenza Epidemic of 1918. Right now we are in the period of time equivalent to roughly 1918.

Hope for the best; plan for the worst; don't wait for tomorrow and live for today. Wink
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truthseeker



Joined: 15 Jun 2006
Posts: 177
Location: NW U.S.

PostPosted: Sun Mar 25, 2007 7:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Great posts, Hocus! We've been interested how much this topic has been brought to our attention of late.

Some three years ago or so, our then 14-year-old son discovered a fascination with 'survival' techniques. He begged to attend Tom Brown's survival camp in New Jersey. He has followed through and has considerable skill in making fire from nothing but forest materials (in the RAIN!) and recognizing edible plants and animals. When pressed about his interest, he said, simply, we're going to need this when the volcano blows. He could not name the reason for his comment.

No matter the physical realities that may come to pass, I remain persuaded that cultivation of one's intuition and awareness of Self is the single most important preparation---for anything.

(But I have great and growing respect for subsistence skills.)
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Hocus Locus



Joined: 22 Sep 2006
Posts: 850
Location: Lost in anamnesis, cannot forget my way out

PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2007 6:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
09-Nov-2007: Recent ups and downs of the Yellowstone Caldera

This interferogram provides a map view of ground movements at Yellowstone. Each color contour represents a line of equal uplift relative to the ENVISAT satellite between Sept. 2004 and Aug. 2006.

The center of the uplift is an elliptical region stretching from the northeastern part of the Yellowstone Caldera (the dashed black line) to the southwest. This area of maximum uplift encompasses both Yellowstone's resurgent domes, features long known for similar movements. During this time period, the north-rim uplift anomaly subsided (bullseye in the upper left part of the interferogram). The yellow lines are roads. The yellow triangles are locations of GPS stations with continuous data. The light blue lake within the caldera is Yellowstone Lake. Thin black lines are mapped faults. Figure courtesy of C. Wicks, USGS.

The November 9, 2007 issue of Science Magazine features an article, Accelerated uplift and magmatic intrusion of the Yellowstone Caldera, 2004 to 2006, by YVO scientists from the University of Utah and USGS. The lead author, Wu-Lung Chang is a Post-doctoral associate with Robert B. Smith, YVO Coordinating Scientist at the University of Utah. Chang specializes in use of the Global Positioning System (GPS) to measure very small movements of the Earth's crust. Using GPS and another satellite-based technique (InSAR), the authors find that parts of the Yellowstone Caldera rose as much as 7 cm (~3") per year during the period 2004-2006. The uplift is most noticeable at the White Lake GPS station, as has been discussed in our monthly YVO updates during the past year. As of late October 2007, the total uplift since 2004 at that location is about 17 cm. Chang and his colleagues credit the relatively rapid rise to recharge of magma into the giant magma chamber that underlies the Yellowstone Caldera. They also used numerical modeling to infer that the magma intruded about 10 km (6 miles) beneath the surface.

North of this region of uplift, another area at Yellowstone has moved downward over the past three years. This north rim uplift anomaly (NUA) had risen during the period 1996-2003, when the rest of the caldera had subsided. The activity was featured in a 2006 article in Nature Magazine with lead author Charles Wicks, one of the co-authors on the new article in Science Magazine. Chang and others hypothesize that magma input after 2004 caused fracturing of the crust that resulted in release of hydrothermal fluids from the north rim area. The loss of fluid pressure then resulted in deflation, or subsidence of the ground surface.

This plot shows the up-down movement of the LKWY GPS station at the north end of Yellowstone Lake. After moving downward about 50 mm (2 in.) between 1997 and 2004, this area moved 90 mm (3.5 in.) upward from mid-2004 to mid-2006. The most recent data shows that as of October 2007 the total uplift at LKWY had reached 140 mm (5.5 in.). Figure courtesy of University of Utah.

Interestingly, the Yellowstone caldera has remained seismically quiet during the past three years of uplift. An earlier article on our website, Satellite Technologies Detect Uplift in the Yellowstone Caldera provides context on the techniques used to study these movements. The new activity, though more rapid than those previously measured at Yellowstone, is not unprecedented at large calderas around the globe. Given the absence of large earthquakes, earthquake swarms and anomalous behavior of Yellowstone's hydrothermal system (its geysers, mud pots and fumaroles), we find little indication that the volcano is moving towards an eruption. At this time, volcanic eruptions and hydrothermal explosions remain an unlikely possibility. Given the geologic history of the area, it is likely that the current period of uplift will cease, to be followed by another cycle of subsidence. When this might happen, though, is unknown.

Useful references on the ups and downs of the Yellowstone Caldera For the lay audience on the YVO Web Site:
Other articles for the lay audience:
  • Brantley, S. R., Lowenstern, J. B., Christiansen, R. L., Smith, R. B., Heasler, H., Waite, G., and Wicks, C., 2004, Tracking Changes in Yellowstone's Restless Volcanic System, U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 100-03. http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs100-03/
  • D. Dzurisin, R.L. Christiansen, and K.L. Pierce, 1995, Yellowstone: Restless Volcanic Giant, U. S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 95-59. http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Volcanoes/Yellowstone/Publications/OFR95-59/framework.html
  • Good, J.D., and Pierce, K.L., 1996, Interpreting the Landscapes of Grand Teton and Yellowstone National Parks, Recent and Ongoing Geology: Grand Teton National History Association, 58 p. 57 illus., Third printing, 2002.
  • Lowenstern, J.B., Smith, R.B., and Hill, D.P., 2006, Monitoring Super-Volcanoes: Geophysical and Geochemical signals at Yellowstone and other caldera systems. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, v.264,no. 1845, p. 2055-2072. http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/2006/royalsoc.pdf
  • Smith, R. B., and Siegel, L., 2000, Windows into the Earth: The Geologic Story of Yellowstone and Grand Teton National Park: New York, Oxford University Press, p. 242
  • University of Utah Seismology and Active Tectonics web site
More technical publications:
  • The new article: Chang, W-L, Smith, R.B., Wicks, C., Farrell, J.M., and Puskas, C.M., 2007, Accelerated uplift and magmatic intrusion of the Yellowstone
    Caldera, 2004 to 2006. Science.
  • Dzurisin, D., Wicks, C.J., Jr., and Thatcher, W., 1999, Renewed uplift at the Yellowstone caldera measured by leveling surveys and satellite radar interferometry: Bulletin of Volcanology, v. 61, p. 349-355.
  • Puskas, C.M. Smith, R.B., Meertens, C.M., and Chang, W.L., 2007, Crustal deformation of the Yellowstone-Snake River Plain volcano-tectonic system: Campaign and continuous GPS observations, 1987-2004. , Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 112, doi:10.1029/2006JB004325. http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/2007/PuskasJGR.pdf
  • Vasco, D.W., Puskas, C.M., Smith, R.B.,and Meertens, C.M., 2007, Crustal deformation and source models of the Yellowstone volcanic field from geodetic data: Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 112, p. B07402 http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/2007/Vasco_etal2007.pdf
  • Wicks, C., Thatcher, W., Dzurisin, D. and Svarc, J., 2006, Uplift, thermal unrest, and nagma intrusion at Yellowstone caldera: Nature, v. 440, p. 72-75. http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/research/deformation/modeling/papers/2006/Yellowstone_nature2006.pdf
___
There's lava in the red line. This just came through on the radio. The lava had overtaken a subway train in Macarthur park and completely destroyed it. (Is it still flowing?) It stopped. But there's more under us. There's has to be something feeding this. We know that the lava broke through here at the tar pits and created this vent, and we know that it broke through at Macarthur park, so that means it is literally traveling underground over a course of at least eight miles. (Yesterday, it flowed straight up.) I've never tracked lava under a city before. I don't know what it will do with man-made tunnels to travel through. (I doesn't matter. I have to deal what's in front of me right now. I don't have time to read a filer on geological theory.) Well, somebody has to. (I can only fight what I can see.) Okay, I'm gonna go ahead and check it out.
~Amy and (Roark), from "Volcano [1997]"
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