Nikolai Dmitriyevich Kondratiev (4 March 1892 - 17 September 1938)
was a Russian economist, who was a proponent of the New Economic
Policy (NEP) in the Soviet Union. He was executed at the height of
Stalin's Great Purge and "rehabilitated" fifty years later.
The Kondratieff Theory
To introduce the Kondratieff Theory, we must go back over seventy years
and examine a remarkable story in economic history, encompassed
within the life of one still little known man. I am certain that, in time,
Kondratieff will rank with the giants of discovery as Einstein and Newton.
Like these men, his insights have begun to alter radically and
permanently our perceptions of economic history.
The Kondratieff wave cycle goes through four distinct phases of beneficial
inflation (spring), stagflation (summer), beneficial deflation (autumn), and
deflation (winter). Since, the last Kontratyev cycle ended around 1949,
we have seen beneficial inflation 1949-1966, stagflation 1966-1982,
beneficial deflation 1982-2000 and according to Kondratieff, we are now
in the (winter) deflation cycle which should lead to depression.
New Little Ice Age
Instead of Global Warming?
by Dr. Theodor Landscheidt �
Schroeter Institute for Research in Cycles of Solar Activity
Klammerfelsweg 5, 93449 Waldm�nchen, Germany
Analysis of the sun's varying activity in the last two millennia indicates
that contrary to the IPCC's speculation about man-made global warming
as high as 5.8� C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool
climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected. It is shown
that minima in the 80 to 90-year Gleissberg cycle of solar activity,
coinciding with periods of cool climate on Earth, are consistently linked
to an 83-year cycle in the change of the rotary force driving the sun's
oscillatory motion about the centre of mass of the solar system. As the
future course of this cycle and its amplitudes can be computed, it can be
seen that the Gleissberg minimum around 2030 and another one around
2200 will be of the Maunder minimum type accompanied by severe
cooling on Earth. This forecast should prove skillful as other long-range
forecasts of climate phenomena, based on cycles in the sun's orbital
motion, have turned out correct as for instance the prediction of the last
three El Ni�os years before the respective event.
Global Warming as a Natural Response to Cloud Changes
Associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph.D.
October 20, 2008 (updated December 29, 2008)
A simple climate model forced by satellite-observed changes in the
Earth’s radiative budget associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is
shown to mimic the major features of global average temperature change
during the 20th Century - including three-quarters of the warming trend.
A mostly-natural source of global warming is also consistent with
mounting observational evidence that the climate system is much less
sensitive to carbon dioxide emissions than the IPCC’s climate models
The Battle against...
BreakForNews.com, 18 Aug, 2005 by Fintan Dunne, Editor
The Earth's climate is your responsibility too, so buy a gas-guzzling SUV,
burn plenty of fossil fuels; and keep asking yourself are you doing
enough to keep global cooling at bay?
Even as the Global Warming crew persist in their deeply dubious claims,
Sunspots have vanished from the face of the Sun --and the next sunspot
cycle is already about two years behind schedule. Independent scientists
say this very scenario has caused a mini-Ice Age before. We present the
latest forecasts and analysis of the likelyhood of Imminent Cooling.
Sun Makes History: First Spotless Month in a Century
Michael Asher (Blog) - September 1, 2008
The sun has reached a milestone not seen for nearly 100 years: an entire month has passed without a single visible sunspot being noted.
The event is significant as many climatologists now believe solar magnetic activity – which determines the number of sunspots -- is an influencing factor for climate on earth.
According to data from Mount Wilson Observatory, UCLA, more than an entire month has passed without a spot. The last time such an event occurred was June of 1913. Sunspot data has been collected since 1749.
When the sun is active, it's not uncommon to see sunspot numbers of 100 or more in a single month. Every 11 years, activity slows, and numbers briefly drop to near-zero. Normally sunspots return very quickly, as a new cycle begins.
But this year -- which corresponds to the start of Solar Cycle 24 -- has been extraordinarily long and quiet, with the first seven months averaging a sunspot number of only 3. August followed with none at all. The astonishing rapid drop of the past year has defied predictions, and caught nearly all astronomers by surprise.
In 2005, a pair of astronomers from the National Solar Observatory (NSO) in Tucson attempted to publish a paper in the journal Science. The pair looked at minute spectroscopic and magnetic changes in the sun. By extrapolating forward, they reached the startling result that, within 10 years, sunspots would vanish entirely. At the time, the sun was very active. Most of their peers laughed at what they considered an unsubstantiated conclusion.
The journal ultimately rejected the paper as being too controversial.
The paper's lead author, William Livingston, tells DailyTech that, while the refusal may have been justified at the time, recent data fits his theory well. He says he will be "secretly pleased" if his predictions come to pass.
But will the rest of us? In the past 1000 years, three previous such events -- the Dalton, Maunder, and Spörer Minimums, have all led to rapid cooling. One was large enough to be called a "mini ice age". For a society dependent on agriculture, cold is more damaging than heat. The growing season shortens, yields drop, and the occurrence of crop-destroying frosts increases.....
For the first time in 95 years, a month has gone by without a black spot
forming on the sun’s surface, an event that could signal a change in
This year will be remembered for many milestones, such as the record
performances at the Beijing Olympics and a historic US presidential race.
Less noticed, but perhaps just as significant in the history of our solar
system, for the first time in 95 years, a month has gone by without a
single spot forming on the sun’s surface.
While this may appear to interest only scientists who rarely leave their
laboratories, the level of solar activity has an impact on climate conditions
that affect everyone on the planet. Indeed, the absence of sunspots has
caused commentators to revisit an unpublished paper from 2005 by a pair
of astronomers from the National Solar Observatory in Arizona.
Dr William Livingston and Matthew Penn predicted that, by 2015, sunspots
would vanish for ever, stoking fears that a mini ice age would be in store,
severely impacting life on parts of the globe.
If this is the case, it will not be the first time a lack of sunspots has been
linked to cooler temperatures. In the second half of the 17th and the early
18th century, few sunspots were recorded – there were 50 when one
thousand times that number would have been expected. The weather was
so cold the River Thames in London froze over for weeks and harvests
throughout Europe failed, all because of the unpredictable behaviour of a
star almost two hundred million kilometres away from Earth.
Temperature Monitors Report Widescale Global Cooling
Michael Asher (Blog) - February 26, 2008
Twelve-month long drop in world temperatures
wipes out a century of warming
Over the past year, anecdotal evidence for a cooling planet has exploded.
China has its coldest winter in 100 years. Baghdad sees its first snow in all
recorded history. North America has the most snowcover in 50 years, with
places like Wisconsin the highest since record-keeping began. Record
levels of Antarctic sea ice, record cold in Minnesota, Texas, Florida,
Mexico, Australia, Iran, Greece, South Africa, Greenland, Argentina, Chile
-- the list goes on and on.
No more than anecdotal evidence, to be sure. But now, that evidence has
been supplanted by hard scientific fact. All four major global temperature
tracking outlets (Hadley, NASA's GISS, UAH, RSS) have released updated
data. All show that over the past year, global temperatures have dropped
A compiled list of all the sources can be seen here. The total amount of
cooling ranges from 0.65C up to 0.75C -- a value large enough to wipe
out most of the warming recorded over the past 100 years. All in one
year's time. For all four sources, it's the single fastest temperature change
ever recorded, either up or down.
-- South America in 2007 experienced one of its coldest winters in decades. In Buenos Aires, snow fell for the first time since 1918.
-- Johannesburg, South Africa, had the first significant snowfall in 26 years.
-- Australia experienced the coldest June ever.
-- Charlotte, N.C., experienced 21 deg F on April 8, 2007, the coldest ever recorded for April, breaking a record set in 1923.
-- December, 2007, saw record low temperatures in Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Oregon.
-- Dec. 4, Seoul, Korea, the temperature was a record minus 5 degrees Celsius.
-- The Canadian government warns that this winter is likely to be the coldest in 15 years.
Year of Global Cooling, Washington Times, December 19, 2007 http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071219/COMMENTARY/10575140
David Archibald: Global Warming & Sunspots explained
Schroeter Institute for Research in Cycles of Solar Activity
Klammerfelsweg 5, 93449 Waldmuenchen, Germany
Abstract: Analysis of the sun's varying activity in the last two millennia indicates
that contrary to the IPCC's speculation about man-made global warming
as high as 5.8° C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool
climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected.
It is shown that minima in the 80 to 90-year Gleissberg cycle of solar activity, coinciding with periods of cool climate on Earth, are consistently linked to an 83-year cycle in the change of the rotary force driving the sun's oscillatory motion about the centre of mass of the solar system. As the future course of this cycle and its amplitudes can be computed, it can be seen that the Gleissberg minimum around 2030 and another one around 2200 will be of the Maunder minimum type accompanied by severe cooling on Earth. This forecast should prove skillful as other long-range forecasts of climate phenomena, based on cycles in the sun's orbital motion, have turned out correct as for instance the prediction of the last three El Niños years before the respective event.
The sun's conveyor belt is a current, not of water, but of electrically-conducting gas. It flows in a loop from the sun's equator to the poles and back again. Just as the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt controls weather on Earth, this solar conveyor belt controls weather on the sun. Specifically, it controls the sunspot cycle.
Solar physicist David Hathaway of the National Space Science & Technology Center (NSSTC) explains: "First, remember what sunspots are--tangled knots of magnetism generated by the sun's inner dynamo. A typical sunspot exists for just a few weeks. Then it decays, leaving behind a 'corpse' of weak magnetic fields."
Enter the conveyor belt.
"The top of the conveyor belt skims the surface of the sun, sweeping up the magnetic fields of old, dead sunspots. The 'corpses' are dragged down at the poles to a depth of 200,000 km where the sun's magnetic dynamo can amplify them. Once the corpses (magnetic knots) are reincarnated (amplified), they become buoyant and float back to the surface." Presto—new sunspots!
All this happens with massive slowness. "It takes about 40 years for the belt to complete one loop," says Hathaway. The speed varies "anywhere from a 50-year pace (slow) to a 30-year pace (fast)."
The current solar cycle peaked in November 2001, and the number of
spots fell to a minimum during 2006. Back then solar experts predicted
that the new cycle would begin by the fall of 2006.
But the new cycle didn't begin when expected; so the experts from NOAA
and NASA held another meeting and predicted it would begin in March
2008. It didn't, and the solar experts at the Australian Space Weather
Agency recently predicted the onset of the next cycle will be delayed until
Canada's National Post, 20 June 2007
"The mud at the bottom of B.C. fjords reveals that solar output drives climate change - and that we should prepare now for dangerous global cooling."
"Solar scientists predict that, by 2020, the sun will be starting into its weakest Schwabe solar cycle of the past two centuries, likely leading to unusually cool conditions on Earth. Beginning to plan for adaptation to such a cool period, one which may continue well beyond one 11-year cycle, as did the Little Ice Age, should be a priority for governments. It is global cooling, not warming, that is the major climate threat to the world, especially Canada..."
_________________ Minds are like parachutes.
They only function when open.
Last edited by Fintan on Tue Apr 20, 2010 12:06 pm; edited 35 times in total
Joined: 04 May 2008 Posts: 828 Location: Outer Heaven
Posted: Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:38 pm Post subject:
Analysis = Global Warming is a complete and utter Psyop. Fintan this is a great, refreshing analysis. I certainly sought to be educated on the whole Global Warming/Cooling scenario and this audio surpassed my expectations.
Joined: 07 Feb 2006 Posts: 45 Location: Vancouver, BC
Posted: Wed Sep 10, 2008 10:05 pm Post subject:
I recently came across that sunspot article myself. Looking forward to checking out this audio.
I live in one of the more temperate parts of Canada, in Vancouver. We only get a handful of sub-zero days in the winter (unlike the rest of the country), but I think a lot of Canadians were maybe looking forward to a bit of global warming. I know I was.
Big chill a symptom of climate chaos
September 1, 2008 - 4:47PM
Forget global warming - the latest problem is global cooling.
Conservation group WWF has blamed climate change for the coldest August in Sydney for more than 60 years.
The freezing temperatures are proof of the urgent need to cut carbon pollution, according to WWF development and sustainability program manager Paul Toni.
"We can expect more extremes in climate," Mr Toni said.
He said climate records had tumbled over the past year.
Australia had its driest May on record, Perth had its wettest April on record, and Tasmania recorded its hottest ever temperature, according to Mr Toni.
He said climate extremes were affecting southern Australia in particular.
"This is consistent with climate modelling showing the southern states will feel the effects of climate change most severely," he said.
Mr Toni said if action was not taken, more volatile weather would be on the radar.
Global Warming? Did we say warming? We meant "Climate Chaos". You know, "changes in weather". Any changes. You know, unlike weather's normal behaviour which is that it changes all the..., uh, the main thing is, we know the cause, and that's carbon pollution. We must take action! (and your money). _________________ Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job. -Douglas Adams
There are no “esoteric” truths/conspiracies necessary to understand this overblown “Global Tepid” shit storm. This thing was planned with plenty of wiggle room and when you add in the extra layer of nonsensical confusion-logic of the tin foil brigade … the folks in charge are getting fatter and happier every damned day! These folks are so clever that no matter what the science proves, its all about your carbon footprint man (just ask Al Bore)… cold/warm/whatever … you will pay for it in taxation and regulation. Remember its all your fault … feel guilty. Where do you think all the money to bail out Freddy and Fannie, etc. is going to come from? And what about the “war on terror/war on drugs/war on hunger/war on poverty/war on AIDS/war on peace” (sic)? Big budget line items … eh?
Now butt this information up against the ridiculous price of oil designed to almost bankrupt third world countries as they claw their way into the 21st century with all the sociological/environmental/suicidal pains involved (industrial revolution … what color this time?), bogged down with 19th century technologies based in controlled, archaic power sources. Think about that next time you buy a 2 dollar widget from your local Wal-whatever super-store.
There soon will be a very profitable energy upgrade in the US and Europe just in time to escape the shackles of oil … another “brave new world” of hydrogen/wind/water/nuclear based economies and the fat cats will make another killing. Onward and upward, hey ho! Once this market has been raped and pillaged, its time for the third world countries to buy into an upgrade. There is and always will be a non-stop cash flow for this economic structure … its just good (sic) business, nothing personal. I've seen it, in one of my past lives I worked for the AT&T advertising department and they just love the conspiracy windup pushed by the AJs’ of the world … good for business! Endless (re)cycle, its green doncha know? … Getting it yet?
On this anniversary of the deaths of ~3000 innocent folks, try to put these things into perspective before you try to push holograms/missiles/space beams/whatever the fuck … whose purpose are you serving anyway? I will repeat myself again, as I have for the last 7 years, I was there, I lived through it, I saw planes, no need for TV, I went to some funerals, my sense of optimism was permanently broken and I will hold these truths against the “just business” folks until the day I die. I hope you will too.
So fuck off freaks and let us mourn in peace …
All my love to those who understood back then and remember again …
PS. Sorry for the bummer but I feel very little wind in my sails today … want solutions? I got nothing ... _________________ "Look up here, I'm in heaven. I've got scars that can't be seen. I've got drama, can't be stolen. Everybody knows me now." - David Bowie
Last edited by hawkwind on Thu Sep 11, 2008 9:10 pm; edited 2 times in total
Posted: Thu Sep 11, 2008 5:33 pm Post subject: Global Climate Something??
Great Audio Fintan
I follow your line here and must say I agree fully with your educated guesses based on the facts presented.
I may have posted that "Global Dimming" video here before which is based on the evaporation rate which farmers have studied for many years.
But being someone who believes in a Global Elite who wish to control and possibly kill the masses for their own power trips I do not see this as anything that unusual. After all we live in this Technocratic society with the altar being science itself. So wouldn't it be fundamental to crush the peoples idea of science as the truth or the answer correct.
The chaos of believing in nothing or anyone/anything must be the best way to enjoy power while the masses clamor for some semblance of sanity or truth.
Possibly through the strengthening of religious belief and a divide of culture based not on space (regions/nations) but ideology or circumstance is the way to split the deck (Poker metaphor).
After all, many here use physics to describe the inaccuracies of 9/11 yet this well established science proven through the scientific method means nothing to the mind set in stone. So is it the scientific method itself being placed on the chopping block by these people who wish to have the knowledge for themselves.
"Climate Change" no doubt I have been hearing that a lot lately and will probably hear much more in the next couple of years.
My final contention in all of this is a simple one. If we as a race upon this earth continue to build the scientific model on the same formulas that were in the middle ages then we will ultimately be subject to the same ruling classes of that era. Science in the last Hundred years has become a religion in of itself and by the standards of the ruling classes must ultimately be brought back to their own usefulness.
Remember if the Electric Grid in your town would fail today with no end in sight most individuals would die on doorsteps begging for food.
This has been created this way for the same reasons I stated above.
Excuse my CT beliefs
_________________ "Fear is the passion of slaves."
Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Posts: 554 Location: western pennsylvania
Posted: Fri Sep 12, 2008 10:58 am Post subject:
excellent show Fintan
some thoughts on how the battle lines were drawn
1. those who propose "global warming" seem to have hijacked the environmental or, as i prefer , the "earth friendly" movements.
2. the evil "anti-global warming" crowd appeals to the "pro-business" and "i should be allowed to do whatever i want" crowd
3. any talk of reducing environmental damage, recycling, improving gas mileage, etc became a discussion of how it effects global warming, CO2 emissions and climate change. the problem with burning coal isn't the amount of CO2 but the heavy metals and other pollutants going up the stack. also the damage that the mining does to the land and water. these are why we should shift from burning coal. but the global warmers emphasize CO2 and the anti's poopoo it and the real problems don't get discussed.
4. whether it's going to be warming or cooling, a healthy natural environment is our best defense. we live in and because of the environment. the more it can adapt to changes, the more it can tolerate certain parasitic species living off of it. _________________ Birth is the first example of " thinking outside the box"
I appreciate you who ever you are
Thanks for this VID
I got it.
AM watching it
I probably will agree with it fully
Eventually, more will come to our side.
You all are strong Human Beings
Lets all be strong
I appreciate this greatly
I didn't see this one.
We are on the CUSP
I can feel it.
The WEB the W orld W ide W eb
TAcit isn't it
Thats what they called it
The web is covering the world but only we can use these strings for good.
Those who wish to keep eyes wide open. (My life is this of placing these lines of connections in major projects)
_________________ "Fear is the passion of slaves."
Sunspot #1001 did not make it all the way across the face of the sun
before fading out. Even if we are getting cycle 24 sunspots now, they are
not lasting very long.
I'm starting to wonder about the predictions from some sectors of the
solar astronomy field of an extended solar minimum, the kind which
produces global cooling like the Little Ice Age--that would suck.
Jerry Pournelle says it would take a few years (maybe a decade IIRC) to
get a "foot of ice" on the ground, and real glaciers would take "less than a
century". If we are entering into a period of reduced solar insolation, we'd
better hope it's not worse than the Maunder Minimum was.
August was the first calendar month with no sunspots since 1913. Of
course, there have been periods longer than 30 days, but generally over
a two calendar-month period in which there were some sunspots in each
month. As of Thursday, September 4, there have been 46 continuous
days with no spots. That is the seventh longest period of no spots, looking
back over 150 years to the mid-19th century. If there are no sunspots
through this Sunday, at 49 days this will be the fourth longest spot-free
So we are now at 55+ days, with a sort-of-maybe spot. Pretty dismal.
The third longest period was 54 days starting from the 16th of February
1879, the second longest period started on the 11th of March 1901 and
lasted 63 days. But by far the longest spotless period lasted from the 8th
of April to the 8th of July 1913, which in total was 92 days. Will we beat
Here's a financial report that accepts as a given that failure of sunsports
to reappear is a sign of climate cooling and thus good for oil:
One of the more spurious arguments that the Sun cannot
affect weather on Earth to any appreciable degree follows:
Moreover, National Geographic reports that "...Sunspots alter the amount
of energy Earth gets from the sun, but not enough to impact global
climate change. See: National Geographic: Don't Blame Sun for Global
Warming, Study Says
Sunspot-driven changes to the sun's power are simply too small to
account for the climatic changes observed in historical data from the 17th
century to the present, research suggests. The difference in brightness
between the high point of a sunspot cycle and its low point is less than 0.1
percent of the sun's total output."If you run that back in time to the 17th
century using sunspot records, you'll find that this amplitude variance is
negligible for climate," Foukal said. Link
Gotta read between the lines to catch the spin in that. The article seems
to be talking about sunspots. But read it again and it actually quotes
figures for solar brightness - not changes in sunspot numbers.
Of course, solar brightness rarely varies appreciably, it's the
sunspot number that is highly correlated with Earth weather, due to
their magentic effects on impeding cosmic rays and thus cloud formation.
Speaking of false assumptions, by the way, I could care less what Sarah
Palin believes about climate change, and neither should you.
For one, it's banal to assume that all her beliefs on a variety of topics
are to be rejected en masse if we reject her political beliefs.
But more importantly, the sting in the tail of this climate skepticism by
U.S. conservatives is that they were calculatedly set up as the 'luddites'
of the climate change debate. The plan was that leftist support for the
climate change agenda could be copperfastened by getting the right
to take the argument on board. Good idea. It has worked by and large. _________________ Minds are like parachutes.
They only function when open.
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