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Weather by the Moon

 
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bornfree



Joined: 28 Jan 2006
Posts: 509

PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2007 10:54 pm    Post subject: Weather by the Moon Reply with quote

Quote:

Weather By The Moon

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Current Moon
28th: Full moon(eclipse)
30th: crossing equator heading north
31st: perigee #10 (10th closest out of 13 for the year )

General
Full moon and perigee together often produces warmer conditions, whatever
the season and part of the world. In the southern hemisphere the night of
the 28th was very mild for August. F+P can bring a milder week to winter and
record high temperatures to a summer. If less than 36 hours apart the
combination can also signal a period of drier weather coming. But this time
F and P are 61 hours apart, indicating a wet spell. This may well be the
case for NZ, with the first ten days of September looking likely to be
rather unsettled for the NI and for the top, west and east of the SI.
Victoria and parts of SA may also come in for much rain in September's first
week.
Perigee brings winds and higher tides. It also exaggerates whatever weather
is being generated, depending on the season. In winter perigee can add to
cold and in summer add to warmth. If the coupling of F+P is joined by a
lunar equinox(crossing equator), both increased wind and earthquake activity
can be athe likely outcome. Surfers will find some amazing waves over the
next few days.
The lunar eclipse occurred last night for both hemispheres, although the
northern hemisphere are 12 hours behind the southern and will have to wait
till their 8pm rolls around before they see the same rare and wondrous sight
southerners were seeing last night. Because the full moon clears the sky,
most NZers and Australians were getting a great view. An eclipse occurs when
the full moon is nodal, that is, it is sitting on the ecliptic which is the
plane of the orbit that both the moon and earth (and planets) travel on
around the sun. That is why in an eclipse time the earth passes in front of
a lower-down moon for a short while and blocks out the sunlight that usually
shines through space past the earth and onto the moon, to be always seen (in
full moon time) from the dark side of earth which is experiencing night.
Last night in the middle of the eclipse the winds went suddenly dead and the
clouds stopped moving. This lasted for about twenty minutes. An analogy is
the way the winds blow strongly with an incoming or outgoing tide but
suddenly go still on the turn.
Does an eclipse affect weather? Full moon, perigee, nodal crossing and lunar
equinox all affect weather. When these factors bunch up more turbulent
weather can be the result. Eclipses were feared in olden times for reasons
peculiar to certain religions. The sight of the moon disappearing for a
couple of hours every few years would have been scary enough. But in the
extreme distant past the moon was closer, by a few hundred miles when
ancient villages 700,000 and more years ago stood on islands that have long
disappeared beneath oceans that have risen since the last ice age. There is
no reason to close the door on that age, after all, Egypt alone has been
settled for at least 600,000 years, it is just that archaeologists have not
found older villages just yet. It is tempting to think that a closer moon
would have brought even more weather extremes at times of these astronomical
conjunctions, and an eclipse would have been good reason to be frightened.
Perhaps that is why Stonehenge and other stone monuments are set up to
calculate eclipses.
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New website
Our reconstructed website goes live in about a fortnight. Readers will find
all sorts of fascinating features, including the facility to find weather up
to 2010 for most towns in both countries. Meanwhile we are still offering
the service, by email negotiation on enquiries@predictweather.com.
---------------------------------------------------------

New almanacs
The New Zealand Weather Almanac 2008 will be on sale from September 19th.
This year new features include a fishing bite times diary as well as the ski
and surf diaries, also a temperature trend readout for the year for main
cities. The Australian almanac for 2008 is nearly completed and will be
available in about a month for Australian readers.
------------------------------------------------------------

September for NZ
This month the N Is may be wetter than average but the S Is drier than
average. For the N Is. the most rain may come 8th-11th and 16th-19th and
least rain around the 12th-16th. For the S Is. the wettest may be around the
5th and 19th, and the least rain around the 12th-17th.
Sunshine hours should be less than average for the North Island, and just on
average for the S Is. The northern and southern ends of the North Island may
be warmer than normal whilst BoP to Hastings may be cooler. In the SI,
warmer than average districts may be the W coast, inland Otago and
Southland..September may be a month without much wind, as frequent NE’s may
keep temperatures above normal over much of the country, especially
Westland. They may also contribute to sunnier and drier than average
conditions in the west S of Waikato and the far S of the SI. Both Dunedin
and Invercargill airports may have few windy days this month.

Most likely rainfall times by region are:
Northland to Hamilton: 1st-11th, 16th-19th, 24th-30th (heaviest 1st, 5th,
8th, 17th, 27th),
Western, Central North Is: 1st-3rd, 5th-11th, 16th-19th, 24th-27th, 29th
(heaviest 5th, 8th, 10th, 26th)
Taupo: 2nd-3rd, 5th-12th, 17th-19th, 25th-29th (heaviest 8th, 18th),
Gisborne, HB: 1st-5th, 8th-11th, 16th-25th, 29th-30th (heaviest 2nd,
18th-24th, 30th),
Lower North Is: 5th-11th, 17th-26th, 29th (heaviest 8th, 19th),
Nelson and Marlborough: 1st-5th, 8th-11th, 18th-20th, 24th-26th, 29th-30th
(heaviest 5th, 8th, 18th, 29th),
Canterbury: 2nd-6th, 8th-11th, 18th-20th, 24th-25th (heaviest 3rd, 10th,
19th, 24th),
Otago: 11th, 18th, 29th-30th (heaviest 18th),
Dunedin: 4th-6th, 11th-12th, 19th, 24th-26th, 29th (heaviest 18th),
Southland: 9th-11th, 18th, 27th, 30th (heaviest 18th),
Buller/West Coast/Fiordland: 5th-9th, 24th-30th (heaviest 5th, 8th,
26th-30th),

September for NZ, Daily events
1st-3rd: NE’s freshen over the N of the country ahead of a depression which
lies near Norfolk Island around the 2nd. By the 3rd it may be situatied to
the N of the NI accompanied by strong E winds with heavy rain affecting
Northland, Auckland and Coromandel, and East Cape to northern Hawkes Bay.
4th-11th: Unusually high temperatures for September may occur in Auckland,
Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Taranaki and Wellington, also Kawerau and Hamilton.
Easterlies decrease over the NI by 4th and 5th as the depression moves away
to the E. NE’s flow over the SI between an anticyclone to the far E of the
country and a depression near Tasmania. A weak trough covers NZ around the
6th, followed by a period of unsettled Ws. Southerlies spread onto the SI
behind a trough about the 10th. Another depression moves from the Tasman
Sea to lie just west of Taranaki around 11th, preceded by unsettled NW
conditions bringing rain to the NI.
12th-17th: On 12th a cool S airstream may affect NZ as a ridge of high
pressure lies in the mid Tasman. Southerlies should abate by 13th as an
anticyclone moves from the S Tasman onto the SI. A shallow depression lying
in the Tasman Sea around 14th remains stationery through to 17th.
Anticyclonic conditions may prevail over much of NZ. From about 16th, a
moist NE airstream flows over Northland.
18th-25th: A depression from the Tasman Sea lies N of the country by 18th.
The moist NE flow spreads over NZ during the next few days as the
anticyclone moves away to the E. The flow turns E over the NI from 21st
when the depression lies NE of East Cape. A ridge of high pressure extends
onto the SI from the anticyclone in the E.
26th-30th: A weakening slow moving depression lies in the Tasman Sea from
26th through to 30th. A moist N airflow covers NZ ahead of it.
Allow 24 hour error to all forecasts. Skewing also occurs around New moon
(12th), apogee(16th), Full moon (27th), and perigee(28th).

MOON IN SEPTEMBER
4th: Last Quarter
5th: Northern Declination
12th: New Moon
12th: Crossing Equator
16th: Apogee
20th: 1st Quarter
20th: Southern Declination
26th: Crossing Equator
27th: Full Moon
28th: Perigee #6
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---------

September for Australia
NT: drier than average
NSW: drier than average
VIC more rain than average
TAS: drier than average
QLD: drier than average
SA: more rain than average
ACT: drier than average
WA: drier than average

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Rugby World Cup
Some weeks ago I was commissioned by someone in the management team to work
out the weather conditions in France and the UK for the key match fixtures.
The idea is that the foreknowledge might be used by All Black coach Graham
Henry to help determine which players will be fielded to suit conditions. In
summary, the weather for the Rugby World Cup fixtures is predicted to be as
follows:


8 September,
NZ vs Italy
-:Marseille, France, 1.45pm, dry, partly cloudy
For game:
Temperature: 16C
Relative humidity: 54%
Wind speed: 25mph
Expectation: dry, scattered clouds.
-----------------------------------------------------
15 September,
NZ vs Portugal
-: Lyon, France, 1pm, light rain
For game:
Temperature: 14-15C
Relative humidity: 73%
Wind speed: 6-10mph
Expectation: cloudy, odd showers.
---------------------------------------------------------
23rd September,
NZ vs Scotland, 5pm
–: Edinburgh, Scotland, light rain
For game:
Temperature: 11C
Relative humidity: 94%
Wind speed: 5mph
Expectation: Light rain from afternoon onwards. .
------------------------------------------------------
29th September ,
NZ vs Romania, 1pm
–: Toulouse, France, clear skies all day
For game:
Temperature: 17-18C
Relative humidity: 77%
Wind speed: 15-16mph
Expectation: Clear skies
------------------------------------------------------
7 October
Quarter final
–: Cardiff, Wales, mostly cloudy
For game:
Temperature: 14-15C
Relative humidity: 88-95%
Wind speed: 10-11mph
Expectation: Chance of odd showers in afternoon.
--------------------------------------------------------
13 October:
Semi final
_:St Denis, France, Mostly cloudy in morning then light rain,
For game:
Temperature: 14-16C
Relative humidity: 80-90%
Wind speed: 10-12mph
Expectation: light rain after 7pm
--------------------------------------------------------
19 October:
Bronze Final,
Paris, France, 7pm, Light rain in morning. rain after game,
For game:
Temperature: 18C
Relative humidity: 73%
Wind speed: 8-10mph
Expectation: rain about 10.30pm
--------------------------------------------------------
20 October
Final,
: St Denis, France, 7pm, skies clear, mostly dry
For game:
Temperature: 12C
Relative humidity: 88%
Wind speed: 8mph
Expectation: Fog, but mostly dry in morning.

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2008 for NZ (summarised from NZ Almanac 2008)

Highlights
Warm and sunnier for the coming summer - temperatures in December, January
and February should be above normal (best places to be will be Canterbury,
Wairarapa, Gisborne and Auckland).
Only one cyclonic event is expected; in autumn.
Winter will begin earlier.

Overall quite a wet year, especially in March and August. Northland will
again be vulnerable. Autumn and winter will host significant flood events.
Only one cyclone is expected, in the fourth week of March
Winter will start earlier and finish later. Cold snaps with snow will arrive
in the first week in April and in fourth week in May. The country could see
slightly more rain than average for the year. After a drier-than-average
late summer, autumn, winter and spring may be wettter than normal. December
will then be abnormally drier in the North island only. For the North Island
the wettest month may be March. For the South Island the wettest month may
be May. For the country August should be the wettest month and April the
driest. Average to a degree warmer overall. Slightly sunnier than average in
both islands. Grayest month for all: August

Northland
A drier than average year. But heavy rain warnings that may result in
flooding can be expected at the beginning, middle and end of August

Auckland
A considerably wetter than average year (perhaps by 20%). Most months may
see above average rain. August will be the wettest, April driest

Wellington
A wetter than normal year, the wettest month being March, which will bring
some extreme weather and associated problems.

Christchurch and Dunedin
A drier, sunnier and warmer than average year.

Southern hydrolakes
An average year for rain
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---------------

2008 NZ Extreme events Timetable
Jan: widespread rain to both islands in last week
Mar: cyclone 18th-23rd
Apr: sudden wintry cold snap in first week. Heavy rain N Is.19th/20th
May: Flood alert 3rd-11th. Wintry blast 20th for S Is.
June: heavy rain N Is. in first week. Snow event 19th
July: first week; N Is. rain and snow..18th: more snow..30th: much rain
Aug: 14th, much rain in N Is. In last week, heaviest rain of year for N Is.
Sept: heavy rain in far north 12th-17th
Oct: 14th-18th, rain and snow S Is.
Nov: late snow Ruapehu, floods in last week
Dec: heavy rain Auckland and Canterbury midmonth. More rains fill rivers on
28th.

2008 Cyclones
One about 19th March, bringing bad weather about 18th-23rd to all parts of
the NI and may also affect the top of the S Is.

2008 Cold
A cooler winter, with plenty of snow this year. In the S Is, a snow event
each month will please skifield operators, but perhaps not road crews.
April: A sudden cold snap in the first week brings first snow of the season
at Ruapehu which may also reach the Ruahines
May: On 22nd a wintry blast will signal the start of a winter a week earlier
than last year.
June 19th: a big snowfall for all ski-fields
July 3rd: cold snap bringing snow,
July 18th: snow - this may be one of the country’s biggest snow events of
the year.
July 30th: another snow and rain event.
Aug last week: Canterbury rain, sleet, snow and blizzard

2008 Heavy rain
March 18th-23rd, bad weather to all parts of the NI .
April 19th may bring wind and heavy rain to the NI and top of the SI.
May 3rd-11th, a flood alert may be issued due to the abnormally higher tides
fed by rain
June: first week, heavy rain and galeforce winds in the NI from Coromandel
to Wellington.
July 3rd: Most NI places get rain, some snow, and some falls may be heavy
enough to flood flatland.
Aug 14th-17th: much rain in NI, the SI west coast, the top of the SI and the
southern hydrolakes
Aug 26th: heaviest rains of the year for the NI.
--------------------------

2007/8 Holidays
January sees considerably less sunshine in the NI than the norm. February is
relatively drier and much sunnier, and apart from rain about 7th-10th and
around 24th, should be a good month for holidays. The best and most settled
weather interval may be Feb 10th-18th.
Canterbury is about to start a year that may break sunshine records. North
Canterbury to Dunedin should get plenty of January sunshine. In February,
4th-17th should be good holiday weather.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------

2008 for Australia summarised

NT: drier than average summer, autumn will be wetter, remainer of year drier
than average by at least 50%, 24% less rainfall for whole year

WA: drier by about 20% overall, every month average or drier except for Oct
which is the only month wetter than average

SA: another average year, with most rain falling July, Aug and Dec, rest of
year average or drier

QLD: similar pattern to NT, drier summer, winter and spring, with autumn and
early winter being wetter times of year. Only 4% differrence overall, so
only moderately drier
average rainfall year, most rain falling Mar, Apr and June

VIC: average ranfall year, similar pattern to NSW

TAS:another average year, first half of year wttest mths and 2nd half av or
drr mths

NSW: year of extreme rainfall fluctuations, overall about 25% less rain than
average, alternating by month as drier/wetter etc, the last 3 months
considerably drier than average. It looks like Jan: drier, Feb wetter, March
drier, Apr wetter, May drier, June wetter, July drier, Aug wetter, Sept
wetter, rest drier.

ACT: average year, wettest months late autumn and through winter, rest of
months average or drerr
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---------------

Southern declination notes
When the moon is in the south, cold southerlies are generated, so in winter
it is southern declination dates that mainly concern us.
The midwinter S dec coincides with full moon, although they are separate
cycles. Last year S decs occurred on June 12th, July 10th, August 6th and
September 3rd. They were the main snow event days.
In 2007 southern declination dates February 13th, March 13th, April 9th, May
6th, June 2nd and 30th, July 27th, August 23rd, September 20th, October
17th, November 13th and December 10th.
The below dates may bring increased cold periods in the winter of 2007.

May 8-14 (S dec=6th)
May 27-30 (full moon+Sdec of June 1st/2nd)
June 6-8 (S dec =2nd will kick things off. June 4th-20th
Mercury in cold position (as it was 2006 12th-24th)
June 12-22 (New moon+perigee#9 closest for year)
June 26-30 (S dec =30th)
July 10 (perigee #12)
July 13-15 (new moon+N dec)
July 30-8 Aug (S dec =July 27th)
Aug 23-24 (S dec =23rd)
Aug 30-31 (perigee #10)
Sept 29-1 Oct (full moon+perigee #6)
Oct 7-10 (new moon)
Oct 23-24 (S dec =17th)
Nov 10-13 (S dec+new moon)

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Letters to NZ Herald
I write regular letters to the editor of NZ's biggest newspaper, although
mysteriously none get to print. When I rang to complain I was told my
contributions were not welcome as they were too radical. This is clearly not
a country that welcomes free speech. NZers will probably never get to see
The Great Global Warming Debate, as shown on Channel 4 in Britain and the
ABC in Australia. Politicians here are mortally afraid of public debate. My
letters won't kill or wound anybody. I shall continue to write them. I
enclose them in this column.


31/7/07
Dear Editor
So the Fart Tax may be reintroduced by government under a new name.
ref: http://www.stuff.co.nz/4146637a3600.html
The same objections still exist. Methane is not a problem as it is
inflammable and lightning instantly whiffs it away. All gases disperse, they
do not accumulate. In one burp one whale pumps forty times the methane of
one cow into the atmosphere, yet no one is suggesting whales might be
wrecking the planet.
Ken Ring
Titirangi
--------------------------
30/7/07
Dear Editor
So according to our scientists and our government, climate change due to
acts of man is now to blame for any increase in extreme weather. This means
that calamities can no longer be defined as Acts of God so now must be
totally covered by insurance. Legislation for this would be an act of
kindness.

Ken Ring
Titirangi
-----------------------------------------
24/7/07
Dear Ed
On 5 June this year this newspaper printed an article quoting the National
Climate Office as saying there would be "little sign of a cold snap in the
next couple of months". The next day when it snowed heavily forecasters said
the cold snap would not last. Responding to public howls about incompetency,
it was publicly admitted in the media on the 6th by the chief climatologist
that forecasting was only ever half right. By then the first flurry of
wintry cold weather had already hit Southland and was working its way up the
country. Gusts of around 100km/hr buffeted Invercargill. By the 7th, two
days after the official prediction of no cold for two months, the whole of
New Zealand was reaching for the thermals. Southland's polar blast delivered
snow, high winds, lightning and, to more than 600 households and businesses,
power cuts. By the 8th the wintry blast had caused havoc in Coastal Otago,
with many roads closed or snowaffected. Schools closed and more than 100
South Otago customers spent the day without power. Wintry cold snaps have
not left the South Island since. The same climate agency which could not
predict beyond one day is warning us that global warming will bring such
extreme weather in 50 years time that restrictive measures must be taken now
for the planet to be saved.
The problem is not just local. Forecasters in Britain have miserably failed
to adequately warn of the worst floods in 60 years for Gloucestershire and
now 10,000 are homeless and 45,000 without power. But in year 2000, floods
in southern England were equally as bad, remember Cornwall? - also 1947 when
3,000 properties were flooded in Oxford alone, and some 1,000 km2 (386 mi2)
of farmland was under water for up to three months. Most of Britain was
covered in flood waters in 1852, 1875 and 1894. For instance, in 1894, up to
75 mm (3 inches) of rain fell every day in southern Britain between October
23 and November 16, leading to severe flooding throughout central and
southern England. The difference is that now they are bleating on that
global warming due to driving SUVs and flying in aeroplanes is somehow to
blame for floods. The biggest danger comes not from the weather but from
unwarranted and unhelpful alarmist hysteria. Yes, we do need to be saved.
From that.
Ken Ring
Titirangi
-------------------------------------------------
13/7/07
Dear Editor
It should be noted that the carbon dioxide released when wood is burned is
the same as that absorbed by the tree when it was growing. No more and no
less. It is the same for coal and oil. Therefore no more carbon dioxide is
released into the atmosphere than was removed for the growing or forming
process, so banning open fires because of carbon dioxide emissions is
absurd. Further, the main emissions from a wood-fired plant consist of water
vapour. That is the visible part of the smoke coming from a chimney. Dark or
smelly smoke just means the wood is not burning completely.
In the past cities were much more polluted from coal fires and factories but
somehow the climate did not change. That aside, there is always everything
to be said for moving factories and heavy trucks away from residential
suburbs. But a city's pollution should not be confused with a country's
climate, and no one ever died from sitting around a fireplace despite the
fact that about half of the world's population is using biomass as the
heating source in their private households. The danger from dying from the
cold is far greater.
Granted, smoke does contain particles of unburned fuel which form as a
result of incomplete combustion and harmful pollutants can trigger coughs,
runny noses, headaches and eye and throat irritation, not to mention the
harm to lung tissue, but one would have to sit so close to the source that
they breathed it all in most of the time instead of clean air. The same can
be said for vehicle exhausts which are fatal if inhaled. The fact is, most
people choose not to stick their noses in their car's exhaust pipe.
Similarly few fireplaces are designed with seating halfway up the chimney.
Carbon monoxide is far more deadly than smoke from a fireplace but I have
not heard of any call to ban all cars.
Lest they be accused of revenue-gathering, councils and government keen on
issuing permits for everything should leave open fireplaces alone. We have
always enjoyed them for free.
Ken Ring
Titirangi
------------------------------------------
1/7/07
Dear Editor
It seems not a day goes past without yet another mention of how doomed we
all are because the planet's temperature may have risen 0.6 of one degree in
the past century. Would it be asking the impossible for this newspaper to
not mention global warming or climate change in just one edition? I am
getting a bit hot and bothered having to hear about it day after day after
day. Besides, it is winter time and some of us find comfort in warmth.
Ken Ring
Titirangi
------------------------------------------
19/4/07
Dear Editor
It seems a newspaper cannot mention weather, anywhere, anytime, anymore,
without mention also of 'climate-change'. It is like some mantra belonging
to a fundamentalist religion. I remember life b.cc. Weather happened, and
was dealt with until the next lot. Nobody was held to blame. Certainly
nobody was taxed for it. Yet amazingly the world survived. Scientists were
paid to do real research, not just what pleased the government. The weather
was something that was actually expected to change. Please, can we get back
to that?
Ken Ring
Titirangi
--------------------------------------------
18/4/07
Dear Editor
The global warming debate is certainly not over. If a range element is only
2C above current room temperature a kettle will not heat up, because when
the day cools so will the kettle. A kettle of water weighs a couple of
kilos. We are talking about the air which weighs five thousand million
million tons, being supposedly warmed daily by CO2, something that is only
1/3000th of the air's volume, through 2C in 100 years, according to the
IPCC. That's 100 winters and summers, many cooler than average, that the
extra 2C warmth has to break through. Just like a stray spark from a fire,
any rising CO2 molecule has its heat stripped off it at 10,000 feet, where
it is 0C, above which the surroundings go into subzero temps. At the top of
the troposphere, where the supposed greenhouse effect operates to reflect
heat back down to earth, it is -57C. Yet the new climate science asks us to
believe that one molecule in 3000 can heat up hundreds of miles of air that
is colder than it gets in Antarctic in autumn(today the S Pole was -54C).
One is therefore left wondering, if atmospheric CO2 can do that, why isn't
it doing it right now to Antarctica?
Ken Ring
Titirangi
----------------------------------------------------
31/3/07
Dear Editor
It is odd to hear NIWA's announcement of rain last as bad 150 years ago,
when in 1857 no countrywide metservice existed. If so, where are the
records? The storm is barely over, and already, according to their
nationwide press statement, NIWA are certain that global warming is to
blame. Yet they didn't predict this one until it was already on us. If they
knew it was coming then where were the stopbanks and frenzied activities
getting well prepared for it? Why is not NIWA accountable for the lack of
warning? Perhaps some metservice accountability for insurance claims may up
their diligence and stop the nonsensical press releases. That logic will, as
usual, not be addressed. Neither will the equally absurd suggestion that
these storms are going to occur more regularly, now that global warming is
supposed to be here. If they couldn't predict this one, they logically can't
be certain of the next and the next. Or am I missing something? Actually
this storm WAS repeated in the past, on 2 February 1936, described often by
historians as the worst storm of last century. The fact that it was exactly
four moon cycles ago is probably sheer coincidence.
Ken Ring
Titirangi
-------------------------------------------------------------
16/3/07
Dear Editor
The golden days of summer are perhaps not yet over, despite what forecasters
have predicted in reaction to the week's sudden temperature drop. The cold
snap was due to Tuesday's moon being not only at its southernmost position
for the month, but the furthest point south it reaches all this year. The
previous southernmost point was on 13 February, when another very cold snap
occurred bringing unseasonal wintry temperatures to the far south. The next
southernmost point will be 9 April. The moon's latitudinal position always
brings barometric changes, something modern meteorology has yet to notice.
Ken Ring
Titirangi
-----------------------------------------------------------------
4/2/07
Dear Ed
Our population is growing all the time, and that alone means we are
breathing more and filling the air with CO2. We are industrialised nations,
so industrial growth is essential to our economy, and the emissions must
continue. The greens of this world are not really talking about reducing
emissions, but lifting the foot slightly off the accelerator so the rise is
less fast. Having emissions grow less fast becomes equivalent to reducing
them. So the measures are for what? CO2 is going to eventually increase
despite Kyoto, and forestry sinks will never outpace CO2 output both
anthropogenic and natural because annual bush fires are also part of the CO2
contribution. There is nothing we can do to prevent CO2 output apart from
by completely stopping breathing, running, cooking, driving, working and
eating - immediately. It may be what the green lobby wants for their
children, but not me for mine.
Ken.Ring
West Auckland
------------------------------
4/1/07
Dear Editor
So..the world is in for the hottest year since records began, according to
the World Meteorological Organisation, and our experts apparently concur. If
untrue then such baseless and inflammatory warnings would be highly
irresponsible. The great news then, is not the prospect of a hottest year,
but that meteorologists can now forecast for more than a day or two ahead,
in fact up to a year. Snow, hail, drought and flood-prone farmers will be
welcoming with open arms this wonderful new farm-saving service. When will
we see the first cyclone prediction of summer?
Ken Ring
Titirangi
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Weather for Dublin

Interview News TodayFM, Dublin, 22 Aug, 2007, host Angela

What is going on?
What is going on is a repeat of 1980 and 1989 when the perigees and new
moons occur together in your SPRING time instead of winter and create colder
weather when the season is expecting warmer weather. The perigees and full
moons start to come together at the end of September which for us means a
warmer spring but for you a milder autumn. You are heading towards less cold
winters and milder summers, with the seasons becoming more even. It's
nothing whatever to do with global warming - because here in the southern
hemisphere WE had THAT trend in 2003 and 2004 and now we're going the other
way and heading towards long hot summers and colder winters, which you had
in those years, so there is no global trend to weather because we all
inhabit the same globe.

But isn't it climate change?
You're not getting any more or less rain than you've always had in the past.
Ireland is certainly not normally like the south of France or Cyprus. Last
year, if people remember, June wasn't too bad, 17 dry days, but half of
July's days were wet, and August had only 10 dry days. So altogether 41 dry
days and 48 wet days from June to Aug, meaning it was wetter more than it
was dry
This year its been June 10 dry days, .July 3 dry days, and so far 6 dry days
in Aug which makes 19 dry days out of the past 83, about half as many dry
days as last year and twice as many wet ones. But LAST year Sept and Oct
each only served Dublin 10 dry days, and in Nov you had only 8 dry days.
People have short memories.
Climate change is simply not good English. The word 'Climate' refers to
latitude, and latitude doesn't change all that much. That's why County Clare
would have a similar climate/temperature range to Amsterdam, because the
latitudes are roughly similar. So "climate change" is a nonsense expression.
I usually say, don't you mean weather change?.

What is coming up?
Wed 22nd, dry
Thurs 23rd, dry and warm over Ireland
Fri 24th, hot again
Sat 25th, dry, warm
Sun 26th, dry and warm, hot in the north
Mon 27th, dry, cooler
Tues 28th, dry, cooler
Wed 29th, starting to look threatening
Thurs 30th, cloudy in Dublin but drier in N Ireland and Scot
Fri 31st, dry everywhere

September
Expect about 7 dry days
Aug 27-Sept 1 quite dry, 2-4 fog and rain, 5-7 dry, 8-9 rain, 10 dry, 11-18
rain, 19 dry, 20-23 wet, 24 dry, 25-27 rain,

October
Expect about 15 dry days, especially in the last week
3-6 dry, 14th-15th it should be dry, warm and pleasant, also 23-28,
but BUT THEN there's almost constant rainy days right to Nov 21, the last
week in November.

November
Expect 3 dry days
A gloomy and wet month. At the end it will be cool and will feel like winter
has arrived early. Nov 29-30 dry.

December
Expect 8 dry days
It may be wet in the first week, with some odd dry days. Dec 9-15 should be
dry, And wet from 16th onwards. So.. a cold and wet Xmas and an early
winter, which may make people jump to conclusions about ALL winter, which
won't be correct. Late winter may be quite warm and spring may turn out to
be cold.

How many snow days?
Expect only 6 snow days
It should be wet until Jan 14, then snow in middle of January, on 13th/14th
also again at or near 29th/30th
There should be little or no snow in February
Expect two days of snow March 8th-9th

Ahead to 2008
Jan, 12 dry days, especially the last 7
Feb, 4 dry days
Mar, 17 dry days, especially the last week
Apr, 17 dry days: the first 10 days should be dry, also 16th-19th, 21st-25th
May, 12 dry days, especially 25th to 31st
June, all days wet until July 20th then 2 dry days, then dry on 23rd/24th

A wet and gloomy autumn, then a mild winter, then a mild summer.

So this summer of 2007 overall may not be as hot as some summers have been
in recent years. Heat waves may be rare. The real reason for the seasons
change is just that it is part of a grand cycle of seasons grinding its slow
way forward. There are several repeating combinations.in which sun, moon and
planetary cycles coincide in an endless repetition. Part of the cycle is
36-38 years.

How do we compare to other countries in the Northern hemisphere?
I don't monitor them all, but places differ because they have different
geographical personalities.The whole earth rotates under the moon in 24
hours, so the moon factors I mentioned before apply everywhere. Some are
nearer the coast, some more elevated, which is why Europe is cooler than the
UK even though Europe is closer to the equator, some are warmed by things
like the Gulf Stream, some are south or north facing. But generally the
whole N hemisphere is tending towards more even seasons for the next few
years. The US has just begun its hurricane season, that's because hurricanes
begin near the equator at certain times of the year, namely Aug-Oct for the
Northern hemisphere and Feb-Apr or May for the Southern hemisphere. It is
not unusual, it is normal. What would be unusual would be for a Cat 5
hurricane in say, January.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------

Close perigee years
The moon comes closer to earth once every 27.3 days, called perigee. If we
take the earth-moon's distance on perigee day for every month in a year we
have 13 figures that we can average, yielding the average-perigee distance
for the year. Looking at a series of these we can take note that about every
4.3 years comes a year when the moon is averagely closer, called a
closeperigee year. 2007 is such a year. Perigee changes hemispheres to an
8.85 year cycle. That means perigee is closer to the N hemisphere for about
3 years then drifts south, spending 1-2 years around the equator, then
further south to lie closer to the southern hemisphere for 3 years before
beginning the return journey. Closeperigee years occur when the moon is
passing the equator, as you would expect because the earth bulges into space
more at the equator and so is going to be generally slightly closer to the
moon. The northern hemisphere can expect a big hurricane event in late
October. On the other hand Australia and parts of NZ should experience
extra-high temperatures from late September to November. Spring and early
summer should be warmer than mid and late summer. Next January, February and
March should be mild, not extra hot. By 2008, perigee will have shifted to
the N hemisphere to reach the northernmost perigee point between July
2008-December 2008.
This year may be the last for seriously destructive events until 2011, 2015
and 2020.

July 10th P#12 may mostly affect the beginning of the third week of the
month.
August 4th P#13 and may bring quick snow events to some southern places but
leave others dry.
September 28th P#6 should be strong enough to adversely affect the days
following.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Feature articles

1. Has the Weather Changed?

Weather patterns have not changed. The weather always changes because that
is the nature of nature. But the climate remains the same. However, some
have decided that along with all the talk about climate change it does
appear that in some areas, for instance perpetually sunny Mangawhai, at
least days may have suddenly gone gloomy. But people have short memories.
Climatologists at NIWA, echoed loudly by the prime minister recently said
that Kaeo used to have 1:100 year floods but this pattern has now changed. I
say this is incorrect. Ask a Northland farmer what the weather patterns are
in the region and a typical answer is that there are usually two seasons,
wet and wetter. Northland is renowned for rain - and flooding, more than
once a year on historical average. Pick any period, say from 1920-1930.
Great and devastating floods occurred throughout the Northland region on Mar
1920, Apr 1923, Apr 1924, May 1924, May 1925, May 1926, Aug 1926, July 1927,
Apr 1928, May 1928, Nov 1929 and Feb 1930. For instance, on 28 March 1920
Maungaturoto received 100mm of rain in 12 hours. Was that a wet decade? No,
it was a relatively dry one! The 1930s saw 34 major flood events in the
north. The 1940s saw 38 major flood incidents. The 1950s saw 26 floods just
in the period 1950-1953. We built our pioneer towns along and beside the
rivers before we had roads. We did it for transport and because the lowland
was more fertile. Floods are part of our historical past. Blaming floods on
climate change, global warming, pollution, or Al Queda will continue to be
unhelpful and completely fiscally wasteful. Councils reclaim land to put up
housing developments because they gain revenue from more ratepayers. This
enables expansion and contributes to regional prosperity. The bigger short
term take is more important than the future flood worry. Returning flatlands
to marshes of mangroves is what is needed in some areas to absorb extra
flows of water. And Nature will eventually do it even if man doesn’t.
A drought or a flood will occur roughly every 9 years in the same place, and
this is about half the lunar tide cycle of 18.6 years. Gloomy winter skies,
rain, and even floods should not be regarded as anything more unusual than
other winter weather. Regulatory bodies should ignore fantasies and
hand-wringing about climate change and what will happen in 50 years time.
They should not worry over who is lighting open fires and whether or not
that is putting carbon dioxide into the air because when a log is burned it
merely puts back CO2 that was absorbed from the atmosphere during the
growing process. It is the same with coal, oil and gas. Forget Kyoto, forget
greenhouse, forget Al Gore. All the resources of councils should be directed
towards flood management, actually expecting at least one flood each winter,
not only because that has always been the reality of weather in the North
but also because the economic cost and inconvenience of the disaster of not
being able to get to work in a rural area is far greater than having to undo
a top shirt button because the climate is a fraction warmer. Perhaps we need
to look up the actual historical data for Northland before deciding whether
or not weather patterns are changing.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------

2. When they say most scientists - sorry, they're wrong
No one is denying that the earth has been warming, but the earth has warmed
only 1C over 8,000 years, 0.6C over the last hundred, and a net 0.2 degrees
C of net warming over the 67 years since 1940. Even the IPCC seem to be in
agreement on this. Most level-headed people would not be thrown into a blind
panic over that miniscule increase. Human-emitted CO2 gets the blame for
only half of that—or 0.1 degree C of warming over 67 years. And we've had no
warming at all since 1998. Journalists should resist the temptation to
portray global warming as a morality tale—as NEWSWEEK recently did—in which
anyone who questions its gravity or proposed solutions may be ridiculed as a
fool, a crank or an industry stooge. Dissent is, or should be, the lifeblood
of a free society.
But if there's anything climate-change crusaders are adamant about, it is
that the science of the matter is settled. That greenhouse gases emitted
through human activity are causing the planet to warm dangerously, they say,
is an established fact; and only a charlatan would claim otherwise. In the
worlds of Al "polar bear" Gore: "There's no more debate. We face a planetary
emergency..there is no more scientific debate among serious people who've
looked at the evidence." In NZ wherever he went, hoping the Greens were
listening, the former Minister of the Environment Pete Hodgson was fond of
repeating, 'the science is undeniable'. Without any knowledge of or previous
career in science, the current minister David Parker repeats this mantra
whenever he can. But many of us, especially proper scientists, would argue
that in science there is no such thing as a final word. If you think there
is you may be a cook, a dog handler or a flight steward but you are not a
scientist. Results that had been taken for rock-solid are always sooner or
later revisited and found incomplete, or are qualified, or even debunked.
And scientists and other "serious people" who question the global warming
disaster narrative are not hard to find. Last year 60 of them sent a letter
to Prime Minister Stephen Harper of Canada, urging him to undertake "a
proper assessment of recent developments in climate science" and disputing
the contention that "a climate catastrophe is looming and humanity is the
cause." Among those signing the letter to Harper were Professor Fred Singer,
the former director of the US Weather Satellite Service; Ian Clark,
hydrogeology and paleoclimatology specialist at the University of Ottawa;
Hendrik Tennekes, the former director of research at the Royal Netherlands
Meteorological Institute; physicist Freeman Dyson of the Institute for
Advanced Studies in Princeton; the University of Alabama's Roy Spencer,
formerly senior scientist in climate studies at NASA's Marshall Space Flight
Center in Huntsville, Ala., plus 55 other specialists in climate science and
related disciplines. So..the debate among scientists is over? NASA
administrator Michael Griffin told National Public Radio in May that while
the general trend of global warming exists, that doesn't make it "a problem
we must wrestle with." To insist that any change in climate must be bad news
"is to assume that the earth's climate today is the optimal climate, the
best climate that we could have." The planet's temperature has been
fluctuating for millennia, he added. "I don't think it's within the power of
human beings to assure that the climate does not change."
Plainly, the science isn't settled. It changes all the time. Take the
discovery this month that 1934, not 1998, was the hottest year in the
continental United States since record-keeping began. NASA's Goddard
Institute for Space Studies quietly changed its ranking after a Canadian
statistician discovered an error in the official calculations. Under the new
data, five of the 10 hottest US years on record occurred before 1940; three
were in the past decade. But where science is continually revising, the
claims of politicians like Al Gore and our equally uninformed local
politicos remain unchanged. The Greenland ice sheet is not receding: it
would appear to have experienced no net loss of mass over the last decade
for which data are available. Quite to the contrary, in fact, it was likely
host to a net accumulation of ice, found to be producing a 0.03 ± 0.01
mm/year decline in sea-level.
Climate scientists are still trying to get the basics right. The latest
issue of Science magazine notes that many researchers are only beginning to
factor the planet's natural climate variations into their calculations. Up
till now nature wasn't even in the picture. man was influencing the climate,
they made computer models only factoring in emissions levels and that was
that. There is no scientific consensus on how much the world has warmed or
will warm; how much of the warming is natural; how much impact greenhouse
gases have had or will have on temperature; how sea level, storms, droughts,
floods, flora, and fauna will respond to warmer temperature; what mitigative
steps – if any – we should take; whether (if at all) such steps would have
sufficient (or any) climatic effect; or even whether we should take any
steps at all. Scientists..huh? The UN’s latest report on climate change,
which is claimed as representing and summarizing the state of the scientific
“consensus” insofar as there is one, NOW says that the total contribution of
ice-melt from Greenland and Antarctica to the rise in sea level over the
whole of the coming century will not be the 20 feet luridly illustrated by
Al Gore in his movie, but just 2 inches. Gore’s film does not represent this
so-called consensus at all. Indeed, he exaggerates the supposed effects of
ice-melt only by some 12,000%. Every time the BBC mentions “climate change”,
it shows the same tired footage of a glacier calving into the sea – which is
what glaciers do every summer.
In reality global temperatures have stopped rising. Data for both the
surface and the lower air show no warming since 1999. That makes no sense by
the hypothesis of global warming driven mainly by CO2, because the amount of
CO2 in the air has gone on increasing. But the fact that the Sun is
beginning to neglect its climatic duty -- of batting away the cosmic rays
that come from 'the chilling stars' -- fits beautifully with this apparent
end of global warming. Cumulatively since the early 1990s and conservatively
(since the balance is likely still positive), there has been no net loss of
mass from the Greenland ice sheet. Nevertheless, to hear Al Gore and his
acolytes talk nowadays, one would think the Greenland Ice Sheet is teetering
on the verge of extinction, melting rapidly and all but "slip-sliding away"
into the ocean, where its unleashed water will raise global sea levels to
heights that will radically alter continental coastlines and submerge major
cities. Under the waves will be the Netherlands, Bangladesh, Manhattan,
London, Shanghai, and most Australian and NZ coastal towns and cities. But
the inconvenient truth is that whatever the rest of the Northern Hemisphere
may be doing, especially where reporters go to interview Inuit Eskimos about
changing ice patterns, the part that holds the lion's share of the
hemisphere's ice has been cooling for the past half-century, and at a very
significant rate, making it ever more unlikely that its horde of frozen
water will be released to the world's oceans to raise havoc with global sea
level any time soon.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

3. Yawning and Sleeping to Spread Awareness about Climate Change

One is entitled to one’s opinion, but one is not entitled to one’s own
facts.
What does 'temperature' actually mean? In any metservice recording station
in the course of a day only two readings are taken, the maximum and the
minimum. These are added and halved to find the "mean." Suppose for station
X the maximum today is 25C, taken at say, 3pm. Suppose the minimum is 5C,
taken at 6am. The mean, or average, is 25+5 divided by 2, or 15C. But 15C
may NOT have been the average for the day at all, especially if the maximum
of 25C only lasted for five minutes around 3pm, and the minimum only held at
5C for two minutes, and most of the rest of the day sat on around 18C.
Suppose it is summertime. Temperatures can change within a minute when the
cloud comes over and obscures the sun. But temperature readings are NOT
snapped every minute. A digital system could do that today, but doesn’t, and
we didn't have manpower to do it in a pre-computer era. How then do we know
what average temperatures prevail, not only for one place but for only a few
feet away? It is impractical to set up data-gathering stations every few
metres. There is also altitude variation where a mound a few feet higher can
have its own microclimate. The top of a garden might be warmer than the
bottom. Gardeners know this and plant accordingly. In short, no one knows
what daily averaged temperature a location has, because our instruments do
not measure it. We have no way of knowing if we are warming or cooling, as a
town, a country or a globe, over a year, a century or “since records began”.
We only know what we have made instruments to do, not what nature is
actually doing.
NIWA’s website is in agreement with the IPCC, in that the globe has warmed
0.6 of a degree over the past century and by just one degree in total over
the past 8,000 years. If true then there is little to worry about because
every single day goes through a temperature variation maximum to minimum of
about ten degrees and over many thousands of years Man has already found
ways to cope with this phenomenon. The Earth seems to know what it is doing
and has remarkably all by itself orchestrated ice ages and interglacials
without our help. Oh yes, we have thermometers, but they were only invented
about 300 years ago initially as a plaything of the rich. About 200 years
ago they began employ in weather forecasting. Until the digital age the old
thermometers were made of glass and could not read tenths, so a global 0.6C
rise over a century is just a guess. Scientists think that if you put a
decimal point in something it will not be disputed. Satellites have been
recording temperatures since 1979, arguably too recent for a global
perspective spanning centuries. Few temperature readings are gathered from
the icecaps, the deserts, the craggy mountain tops, the swamps and the
uninhabited islands, let alone the sea, which alone covers 76% of the
earth's surface. So we are left with the ground-based stations. These are
all around cities, mainly at airports or on top of schools or post offices.
They are in high density suburbs and main streets for convenient access and
maintenance. The equipment is housed in white boxes with wooden vanes all
around. Cities have become steadily warmer over the past century, with the
increase and expansion of reflective glass, asphalt and vehicle fumes.
Moreover, the difference between town and country temperature can be
anything up to 5C. If you have a vehicle-dash thermometer, watch it drop the
next time you leave a big city. To only measure urban areas is not
representative of the globe.
As if this wasn't 'globally' unrepresentative enough there has always been a
tendency to shift these temperature recording boxes to the WARMEST parts of
the city. Whoever can boast the best climate can attract more tourists and
their money not to mention retired couples looking for a warmer environment
to live in and invest their savings. So they put thermometers next to air
conditioners, sewerage treatment plants, airport tarmacs and parking lots.
Already New Plymouth, Kerikeri, Wanganui, Kaikoura, Rotorua and Napier have
downtown temperature recorders and other councils are considering it. In
Napier there is an agreement to supply radio and TV with the daily
temperature from either the airport or mid-city Nelson Park stations,
whichever is the HIGHER. NIWA's carbon dioxide measuring apparatus can
readily be seen a few feet from the ground (tail-pipe exhause level) beside
the NIWA building which is situated on the Mountain Rd corner halfway up
Khyber Pass, the busiest, fumiest road in the whole country. It is right
beneath the motorway overpass. You could be forgiven for thinking that
people who used such unscientific techniques could not possibly be true
scientists, let alone the nation's spokespeople on climate trends. But this
is where they get their ‘evidence’ of ‘global warming’ from. Yes, it may be
happening, equally it may not be. And next week I may win Lotto, equally I
may not. I would be a real nutter to invest billions in the situation just
in case.
And there is more. Ask any geologist - As it has been 11,000 years since the
last Ice Age geologists say we are now on the way to the next. Weird as it
may seem, the polar ice sheet expands and contacts because of variations in
the Earth's orbit (Google Milankovitch cycles) and not because of what
lightbulbs humans are using.
The real catastrophe is the erosion of what we used to call freedom and what
we used to call science, because freedom is becoming undermined by
over-regulating governments and science is becoming hijacked by business and
politics. As poles gently shift and countries find themselves at different
latitudes the climate will always change, over thousands of years. But it
won’t fall over because humans decide not to walk to work or recycle
plastic. It’s a pretty safe bet that volcanoes will continue putting CO2 in
the air, the glorious sun will shine and the rains follow to wet the Earth,
long after the dust of many centuries has blown over all our graves.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
--

Predicting the weather - for kids!
There are simple rules to work out what the weather might be.
http://www.predictweather.com/articles.asp?ID=40
------------------------------------------------------------

Books available
Predict Weather Almanac 2007 for NZ is in shops. It has a bright green
cover.

The 2007 Predict Weather for Australia Almanac is published by Random House
Australia and is available in all Dymocks and Collins bookshops. It covers
152 towns and cities in all 8 States, in nearly 500-pages.

Predict Weather Almanac NZ 2008 will be in shops after September 19.

Predict Weather for Australia will be available from this website after
September 30.

The Lunar Code, published by Random House NZ and in NZ shops, about natural
cycles which account for the major shifts in climate. The book is an attempt
to furnish the reader with tools for weather prediction, both short and long
term. The main cycles of the moon are described and starting hints for
anyone wanting to predict coming seasons. The dynamics are there, such as
how the moon causes barometric change when it changes hemispheres, how the
air is as much tidal as is the sea and what happens when the peaks of
different cycles engage together. The moon fits into the interconnected
system that we call the cosmos, and moon, sun and planets play a weather
role. The Lunar Code is available from booksellers throughout NZ. This book
replaces Predicting Weather By The Moon.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer
No responsibility will be undertaken by the editor for actions or outcomes
on the part of readers as a result of information printed here. Allow an
error of up to 2 days for all forecasts. This e-zine is subject to
international copyright laws but may be freely distributed to interested
parties provided that the source is acknowledged; except not for purposes of
commercial gain unless authorised in writing. All Rights
Reserved (c) PWL 2007
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
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visits among all New Zealand websites in the Hitwise News and Media -
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Marketing - Asia Pacific
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To learn more about Hitwise and the Top 10 awards click
http://www.hitwise.co.nz/contact-us/top-ten-awards.php
Many thanks to readers.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
--

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