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Fintan
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 Posted: Thu Sep 09, 2010 10:42 pm Post subject: Election 2010 : Latest Results & Analysis |
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| Quote: | Angry Guy: Time to Slaughter Obama
by FintanDunne, 10 September 2010 04:28:30
An "Angry Guy" political commentary
Come November, 2010 - after over a year of waiting, it's your chance to
kill off Barack Obama at the polls. And to slaughter along with him, droves
of inside-the-beltway cronies from both sides of the aisles.
According to latest polling research, millions of you are itching for
that chance, in numbers unseen for over eighty years.....
READ ON:
http://beforeitsnews.com/story/169/134/Angry_Guy:_Time_to_Slaughter_Obama.html |
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Last edited by Fintan on Tue Nov 02, 2010 10:04 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Fintan
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| Posted: Sun Oct 31, 2010 8:24 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Key races will unfold hour by hour on election night
Sunday, October 31, 2010; 8:15 PM
In less than 24 hours, polls open across the country with dozens of races for Senate and governor up for grabs - as well as up to 100 competitive House contests.
With so many races - not to mention control of the House and Senate - in the balance, it is hard to know where to look on election night.
That's where the Fix comes in. Below you'll find an hour-by-hour guide to the races that will serve as leading indicators of where the election is headed. Think of it as a viewer's guide for Tuesday night. (Look for an expanded version of the guide in the online Fix in the morning.)
7 p.m.: Indiana/Kentucky
There are three House races in the Hoosier State that will tell us what kind of night it will be for Democrats. The 8th District open seat is a certain pickup for Republicans, and the 9th District fight between Rep. Baron Hill (D) and lawyer Todd Young ( R ) is a jump ball. Rep. Joe Donnelly (D) is favored in the South Bend-based 2nd District. If Democrats lose just one of those three, they can hold the House. Lose two and their majority is probably gone. Lose all three, and Republicans will gain upward of 60 seats. In Kentucky, Republicans are spending money on semi-longshot challenger Andy Barr in the 6th District race against Rep. Ben Chandler ( D ). If Chandler loses, Republicans could well make a historic number of pickups. Meanwhile, in the Senate race, if state Attorney General Jack Conway ( D ) can defeat ophthalmologist Rand Paul ( R ), it would be a major upset for Democrats.
7:30 p.m.: Ohio/West Virginia
Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland ( D ) is in deep political peril in his race against former Rep. John Kasich ( R ). The White House would love to see Strickland win because controlling the governor's mansion in a state likely to be very competitive in 2012 could give President Obama a leg up. In West Virginia, popular Gov. Joe Manchin ( D ) appears to have stabilized his bid for the state's open Senate seat. But, Obama and the national Democratic Party are very unpopular in the Mountain State, and that could drag wealthy businessman John Raese ( R ) across the finish line.
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8 p.m.: Florida
The marquee governor's race of the night is between state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink ( D ) and former health-care executive Rick Scott ( R ). Both parties have dumped scads of money into the state, and Democrats see this outcome as crucial to their entire night. Also keep an eye on the south Florida 25th District open seat race, a rare opportunity for a Democratic pickup.
9 p.m.: Colorado/South Dakota
No race has seen more spending by outside groups - $25 million and counting - than the matchup between appointed Sen. Michael Bennet ( D ) and Weld County prosecutor Ken Buck ( R ). Buck has tried to make the contest a referendum on the president, but he has made enough verbal gaffes to give Bennet a path to victory in what could be the closest Senate race in the country. South Dakota has only one congressional district, but it is playing host to one of the best races nationwide between Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin ( D ) and state Rep. Kristi Noem ( R ). Herseth Sandlin has run a solid campaign to distance herself from Obama in this Republican-leaning state, and the race will serve as a test case for whether moderate Democrats can escape the drag of the national party.
10 p.m.: Nevada
The Senate race between Harry M. Reid, the most powerful senator in Washington, and former state assembly member Sharron Angle ( R ) is on course to top $50 million in spending - a remarkable sum given how few voters are genuinely undecided in the contest. Both sides see symbolic importance in this race: A Democratic win would salvage what could be a very tough night, and a Republican victory would mark the second time in four cycles the party had beaten the Democratic Senate leader.
11 p.m.: Washington state/Oregon
The race between Sen. Patty Murray ( D ) and former state senator Dino Rossi ( R ) in Washington has been tightening recently, but Murray remains very well liked among the electorate. Rossi is trying to paint Murray as an insider, a potentially potent message in an anti-incumbent year. In Oregon, former NBA player Chris Dudley ( R ) has run a strong campaign and is in a nip-and-tuck race with former governor John Kitzhaber (D). A Dudley win would give Republicans a much-needed foothold in the Pacific Northwest.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/31/AR2010103103355.html |
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Fintan
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| Posted: Mon Nov 01, 2010 8:08 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | A Comprehensive 2010 Election Guide
November 1, 2010 | 12:00 am - Ed Kilgore
What to Look for Early on Election Day: There will be lots of anecdotal reports during the early hours of voting about turnout and the expectations* of both parties and many candidates. It’s colorful, but don’t believe any of it. Much of this chatter can be safely ignored as too unsystematic or, worse, as spin designed to suppress or motivate turnout. It’s also good to remain skeptical about charges of “voter fraud,” often peddled by Republicans in order to enrage the base and offset Democratic charges of voter intimidation and polling place chaos.
One distraction that generally won’t be available, at least in the East, is the type of early exit-poll rumor that was common before the 2008 election. The exit poll consortium of media outlets won’t get data until after 5:00 p.m. (all hours in this article are Eastern Daylight Time), and leaks prior to release time are becoming virtually extinct. In addition, exit polling is only being conducted in 26 states, and only of statewide races. So if anyone offers you exit poll data from VA-5 at 3:00 p.m., throw it in the nearest trash can.
Watch the weather. Early indications are that Election Day rain will be centered in the South, and some parts of the Northwest—but if the weather gets bad in other key swing areas, it can generally be assumed to benefit Republicans.
Beyond that, though, most of the day before early evening will be filled with tedium and hearsay.
The Late-Afternoon Rush: The first big hint of what’s to come will be at around 5:45 p.m., when media outlets begin reporting partial exit-poll data about the makeup of the electorate. These news organizations actually receive all the exit-poll data that is available around the country at 5:00 p.m., but they don’t use it to call races until polls close in the relevant states. Yet they are willing to report the non-candidate data from the exits earlier in the evening—and, if you read it right, that information can tell you a lot about who’s going to win. Here’s what to look for:
* Partisan/ideological composition of the electorate: In terms of self-identification by voters, if Republicans outnumber independents, it will be a very good sign for the GOP. If voters are divided into Republicans and Democrats plus “leaners,” any plurality by Republicans will be significant. Similarly, if conservatives outnumber moderates, and/or if conservatives exceed 45 percent of the electorate, look for big GOP gains.
* Age composition of the electorate: This is one of the most critical turnout variables. If 18-29 year-olds represent 10 percent of the electorate, Democrats are definitely going to pull some surprises. If, conversely, voters over 50 represent more than 60 percent of voters, this is probably an electorate that would have elected John McCain president two years ago, which is obviously a good sign for Republicans in close races, even in states carried by Obama.
* Total turnout: Turnout for midterms is typically around 40 percent of eligible voters. Anything higher than that is probably a sign that Democratic turnout was better than expected.
* Issues: Exit polls typically ask voters what issues were most important to voters. If “deficits,” “taxes,” “terrorism,” or “immigration” together amount to over what 20 percent of voters consider “most important,” it’s probably a very good sign for Republicans. “Jobs,” “the economy,” and “health care” are concerns shared by Dems and Republicans. And there’s always one question that asks whether voters would prefer a smaller government with less services or a larger government with more services. The small-government opinion almost always prevails (as it did in 2008), but any small-government number over 60 percent could be significant.
* Right track/wrong track; anti-incumbency: These are data points you should approach with caution, since voters for both parties are likely to express strongly “wrong track” or “anti-incumbent” sentiments.
First Poll Closings, 6:00 p.m.: At this time, polls will close in most of Indiana (it’s by local option) and in Eastern Kentucky. The results will provide the first indication of how Americans are voting—and it will also set the tone for the night’s network coverage. (Networks generally don’t like to “call” statewide races until all polls are closed, but sometimes do if the results are very clear.) For example, the networks will probably call the Indiana Senate race for Republican Dan Coats right away, which would be the first GOP “takeover” of a Senate seat. An early call of the Kentucky Senate race for Republican Rand Paul, who has become a heavy favorite in the last two weeks, would portend something like a double-digit win for Paul, and it would begin the night’s first big batch of hype about the Tea Party movement.
There are three House bellwethers in Indiana and Kentucky that bear close watching: IN-9, a perennially marginal district, where Democrat Blue Dog Baron Hill is a slight underdog to Republican Todd Young; IN-2, where a Class of 2006 Blue Dog Democrat, Joe Donnelly, is in a very close race with Jackie Walorski; and Lexington-based KY-6, where still another Blue Dog Democrat, Ben Chandler, who took the seat away from the GOP in a 2004 special election, is in a tough race with Andy Barr. This contest will say something about whether a candidate who voted for climate-change legislation can survive in a coal-producing state. If the GOP sweeps these bellwether districts, the odds are very high Republicans will control the House and could well exceed the 54 seats won in 1994.
Second Poll Closings, 7:00 p.m.: At this time, polls will close in Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia, Vermont, and the Eastern Daylight Time portion of Florida. Two Senate races, in Vermont and Georgia, are non-competitive. In Florida, the networks are likely to go ahead and call the Senate race for Mario Rubio unless some last-minute switch of support from Kendrick Meek to Charlie Crist makes this contest closer than been looking during the past few weeks.
The most important gubernatorial race to watch during this hour is the Florida contest, which is a genuine national prize given its significance for redistricting and the 2012 election; it’s anybody’s race, with various polls showing either Democrat Alex Sink or Tea Party Republican Rick Scott winning. If Sink wins the governor’s race and Dems pull out at least two of the close Florida House races, it should be considered a pretty good night for Florida Democrats.
If Democrat Roy Barnes is looking highly competitive in the Georgia gubernatorial race (and keep in mind this is a state with a majority-vote requirement, so a runoff is possible) against Nathan Deal, it could be a good sign for vulnerable House Democrats there; a Barnes win would be another significant Democratic victory looking toward redistricting. There is also a very tight gubernatorial race in Vermont between Democrat Peter Shumlin and Republican Brian Dubie; if Shumlin wins, it won’t have huge national implications, but it would be one of several Democratic pickups of Republican gubernatorial seats which might mitigate the damage to Democrats’ dignity. In addition Nikki Haley is expected to defeat Vincent Sheheen for the South Carolina governorship, but as in Georgia, an upset is possible, since both Republicans are fighting ethics allegations and party divisions.
This cohort of states could potentially yield a rich harvest of House gains for the GOP. In Virginia, two freshman Democrats who won in tough territory during 2008 are in considerable trouble: Tom Perriello in the central-Southside 5th district, is expected to lose to Robert Hurt if the Republican wave is reasonably strong—though Perriello certainly exceeded expectations in 2008 (if Hurt loses, expect conservatives to turn against him for being too much of an “establishment” candidate). And Glenn Nye in the Hampton Roads-based 2nd district is a slight underdog to Republican Scott Rigell.
If the Republican wave is stronger than expected, it could envelop freshman Gerald Connolly from Northern Virginia, who’s needed late national financial help in a rematch against Keith Fimian; and perhaps longtime southwest Virginia Congressman Rick Boucher, who’s in a tough race against Morgan Griffith. (This is another race that will indicate the depth of coal- country antipathy for votes against cap-and-trade.) But all of these races are close enough that Democrats could sweep them, which would be an early sign that the GOP wave is less than a tsunami.
Down in Florida, there are three Democrats who will probably fall if the GOP turnout advantage is as strong as expected. One is Blue Dog Alan Boyd from North Florida, who’s trailing Republican Steve Southerland in a Republican-tilting district (after surviving a tough primary). Two others are narrow 2008 winners, most famously the fiery progressive Alan Grayson, who’s benefitting from national grassroots financial support but is struggling in a marginally pro-GOP Orlando-area district against Daniel Webster. In the NASA-centric 24th district, Susan Kosmas, who supported the final health reform bill after voting against the House version, is a narrow underdog to Sandy Adams, whose anti-government rhetoric does not extend to the space program. The closest, and probably the most expensive, Florida House contest is a rematch between Class of 2006 Democrat Ron Klein and African American Tea Party ally Allen West in the highly marginal Palm Beach-Broward 22d district. Anything could happen here, but West is the slight favorite given the Republican tilt this year.
In Georgia, watch the central-south 8th district’s Jim Marshall, who is facing the latest in a series of tough opponents in Scott Austin, who abandoned a gubernatorial bid to make this race. (This is the most heavily Republican district represented by a Georgia Democrat.) Marshall is another Democrat who has almost always exceeded expectations. The southwest Georgia 2nd district’s Sanford Bishop, an African American Blue Dog, is facing the toughest race of his career against Mike Keown.
Third Poll Closings, 7:30: Only three states (West Virginia, North Carolina, and Ohio) are in this group, but they carry a lot of nationally important implications. First of all, if Democrat Joe Manchin wins the West Virginia Senate race over John Raese, as polls narrowly predict, GOP hopes of taking over the Senate would largely expire (they’d have to sweep the close races in Pennsylvania, Illinois, Colorado, Nevada, and Washington, and then pull an improbable upset in California or Connecticut). An early call of this race for Manchin would probably touch off the first Democratic celebrations of the night.
Another possible source of Democratic cheer in this group of states would be a win for Ohio Governor Ted Strickland, who’s been closing fast on Republican John Kasich, a longtime national conservative favorite. A Strickland win would carry implications for 2012 as well, given the must-win nature of this state in presidential campaigns. Rob Portman has opened up a prohibitive lead over Lee Fisher in the Ohio Senate race. And in North Carolina, no one much expects Democrat Elaine Marshall to win, but it would be a good sign for her party if she is running within single digits of Senator Richard Burr, who’s never been terribly popular.
On the House side, Ohio Republicans are reasonably confident of being able to knock off three Democratic freshmen. Two of them, Mary Jo Kilroy of the Columbus-based 15th district, and Steve Driehaus of the Cincinnati-based 1st district, are facing rematches with former congressmen (Steve Stivers in the 15th; Steve Chabot in the 1st) who they narrowly beat in ‘08. Driehaus is one of the endangered Democrats who has equivocated about supporting Nancy Pelosi for speaker. A third freshman in the crosshairs is John Boccieri from the Canton-based 16th, a traditionally Republican district. If Republicans have a really good night, they think they can knock off two sophomore Blue Dogs from marginally pro-Republican districts in southeast Ohio: Charlie Wilson in the 6th and Zack Space in the 18th. Polls in these last two districts have been very close.
The Tar Heel State offers Republicans three, or maybe even four, House targets. Freshman Larry Kissell, who won the Charlotte-to-Fayetteville 8th district in an upset in 2008, is in a tight race against Republican Harold Johnson, who disposed of one of the zanier 2008 candidates, Tim D’Annunzio, in a primary and runoff. Two veteran Democrats seem to have gotten into late trouble. One, Bobby Etheridge of the central-east 2nd District, has been hurt by video footage of him appearing to bully a hostile questioner, and is now locked in a close race with “Mama Grizzly” Renee Ellmers. Another, Blue Dog Mike McIntyre, in the relatively pro-Republican southeastern North Carolina 7th district, has struggled to mobilize Democrats unhappy with his conservative voting record in his race against Republican Ilario Pantano. The GOP candidate achieved national notoriety after being accused of murder after his Marine Corps unit killed two unarmed detainees in Iraq (he was not prosecuted and wrote a book about his experiences). Polls of this race are very close.
A real danger sign for Democrats would be a loss for Heath Shuler, who is sometimes treated as the poster boy for Rahm Emanuel’s efforts to recruit conservative Democrats in the 2006 cycle. Shuler’s opponent in the western North Carolina 11th district, Jeff Miller, defeated a Tea Party-affiliated candidate in the primary, so the race is about party rather than ideology.
There’s also a bellwether House race in West Virginia that should track closely with the Senate race, in the 1st district (located in the northern part of the state) where conservative Democrat Michael Oliverio, who knocked off incumbent Nick Rahall in a primary, is battling Republican David McKinley. This is a district that’s been trending heavily Republican in presidential elections and returns there may give some indication of the level of support commanded by Manchin.
*A note on terminology: When I refer to particular information as better or worse than expected for Democrats, it should be judged against the current conventional wisdom about what’s likely to happen. The consensus of expert opinion is that Republicans will narrowly win the House and narrowly miss control of the Senate, and will at the end of the evening control about three-fifths of the nation’s governorships.
http://www.tnr.com/blog/ed-kilgore/78782/comprehensive-2010-election-guide |
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Fintan
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| Posted: Mon Nov 01, 2010 8:28 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | 
Midterm elections 2010:
Prepare for a new American revolution
Popular rage against the elite could change the nature of US politics
By Janet Daley - 30 Oct 2010
More than three centuries ago, the residents of America staged a rebellion against an oppressive ruler who taxed them unjustly, ignored their discontents and treated their longing for freedom with contempt.
They are about to revisit that tradition this week, when their anger and exasperation sweep through Congress like avenging angels. This time the hated oppressor isn't a foreign colonial government, but their own professional political class.
In New York last week I was struck by the startling shift of mood since my last visit, during Barack Obama's first year in office. This phenomenon took varying forms, of course, depending on the political orientation of my interlocutor, but the underlying theme of despair and disgust was almost universal. Liberal Democrats (who hugely outnumber most other factions in that city) were despondent and disappointed with the collapse of Obama's popularity.
A few of them (remarkably few, actually) were ready to blame this on a "Right-wing conspiracy" of vaguely racist motivation. But most of them were frankly critical of the strategic mistakes they believed the White House had made, and the baffling inability of their President to connect with the people in an engaging way. His shocking lack of emotional expression during last month's commemoration of 9/11 – a point of particular significance to New Yorkers – was remarked upon by a number of people I met.
There was a general sense that his personality was over-controlled and repressed, and that this was perhaps a function of his self-invention: the effect of having made a conscious choice to adopt an identity and a history (the Chicago black activist) which was unconnected to his real past. It occurred to me that, in an odd way, he was a Gatsby-like figure who had reinvented himself but whose new persona could be sustained only with a tremendous act of will. This psychological analysis seemed not unconnected to the political one, which revolved around his peculiar inability to sense what most Americans would regard as alienating and contrary to their own values and culture.
My Republican friends, perhaps surprisingly, were not gloating. They were too furious. But contrary to the superficial British assumption (heavily promoted by the BBC), they were not devoting their excoriation exclusively to the Obama Administration – or even to its clique of Congressional henchmen, led by Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid. That they were opposed to the Big State, European social democratic model of government which Obama had imported to Washington went almost without saying. But they were at least as angry with the leadership of their own party for having conceded far too much of the argument.
And this anger – again, contrary to the general understanding in Britain – is not new: it goes all the way back to the Bush presidency. It was widely known in Europe that the American Left hated George Bush (and even more, Dick Cheney) because of his military adventurism. What was less understood was that the Right disliked him almost as much for selling the pass over government spending, bailing out the banks, and failing to keep faith with the fundamental Republican principle of containing the power of central government.
So the Republicans are, if anything, as much in revolt against the establishment within their own party as they are against the Democrats. And this is what the Tea Parties (which should always be referred to in the plural, because they are not a monolithic movement) are all about: they are not just a reaction against a Left-liberal president but a repudiation of the official Opposition as well.
Nor are they simply the embodiment of reactionary social conservatism, which has been the last redoubt of the traditional Republican Right. There were plenty of people in New York who wanted to believe that Tea Partiers were just a new incarnation of the gun-totin', gay-bashing right-to-lifers whom they found it so easy to dismiss as risible throwbacks. This is a huge political miscalculation, which quite misses the point of what makes the Congressional midterm elections this week such an interesting and historic political event.
This is so much more than the predictable to-ing and fro-ing of party control midway through a presidential term. What the grassroots rebellion is really about is an attempt to pull the Republican party back to its basic philosophy of low-tax, low-spend, small government: the great Jeffersonian principle that the best government is that which governs least.
One of the more electorally far-reaching effects of this is that Republicanism could become the home once again of a plausible political and economic programme, rather than simply an outpost for those who seem to reject many of the features of modern life. The gun-toters and gay-bashers and pro-lifers may have jumped aboard the bandwagon, and Sarah Palin may be frantically attaching herself to the parade, but this is not their show: the Tea Party protests began (as their name suggests) as a campaign against high taxation and the illegitimate intrusiveness of federal powers. That is what they are still about.
As some astute commentators have observed, the ascendancy of the Tea Parties has meant that fiscal conservatism can replace social conservatism as the raison d'être of the Republican cause. So rather than being a threat to Republicanism, the election of Tea Party candidates might be its salvation.
It represents a rank-and-file rejection of what many Americans see as a conspiracy of the governing elite against ordinary working people. All of which makes clearer the appeal of even the naivety and inexperience of some of the Tea Party contenders who have challenged incumbent Republican candidates. If what you are rebelling against is a generation of smug, out-of-touch professional politicians, then a little dose of amateurishness or innocence might strike you as positively refreshing. (In a poll last week, more than 50 per cent of voters said that they would be more willing this year than usual to vote for someone with little political experience.)
The Democrats, too, are experiencing internal turmoil, with the Blue Dog congressmen (who represent conservative Democratic states) having to fight all their natural instincts to support Obama's healthcare and cap-and-trade policies. If they are annihilated in these midterm elections, their resentment against the White House will be terrible to behold.
This could be a seminal moment in American post-war history, when popular rage against the political elite brings about realignments within parties which change the whole nature of the country's democratic choices.
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bri
Joined: 16 Jun 2006
Posts: 2311
Location: Capacious Creek
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| Posted: Mon Nov 01, 2010 1:48 pm Post subject: |
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Hate to not be part of the revolution...but the candidates here in Connecticut are simply boring and totally corrupt on both sides of the aisle. I may have to sit this one out but it's good to know the tides are changing in other states.  Still...gonna feel like kind of an asshole sitting around on an important election day. So it goes... |
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MichaelC
Joined: 06 Jul 2006
Posts: 1854
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| Posted: Mon Nov 01, 2010 1:57 pm Post subject: |
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I expect the s.o.s. - the alternate face of the one party system will promise all sorts of change while diligently carrying out the macro program of the NWO.
I am always hopeful and will certainly be watching with interest...but the odds - based on past performance and what is being presented today - suggest what I said above. |
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Big Boss
Joined: 04 May 2008
Posts: 544
Location: Outer Heaven
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| Posted: Mon Nov 01, 2010 10:06 pm Post subject: |
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| bri wrote: | | Hate to not be part of the revolution...but the candidates here in Connecticut are simply boring and totally corrupt on both sides of the aisle. I may have to sit this one out but it's good to know the tides are changing in other states. Still...gonna feel like kind of an asshole sitting around on an important election day. So it goes... |
LOL....welcome to Illinois. |
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UniversalDeceit
Joined: 10 Nov 2006
Posts: 17
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| Posted: Tue Nov 02, 2010 7:07 am Post subject: |
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| Voted early this morning. The majority of the libertarians were better on the issues. I voted against all incumbents as a general rule of thumb. |
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Fintan
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| Posted: Tue Nov 02, 2010 10:03 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
First Lady Michelle Obama speaks at a rally for embattled Democratic
Senator Harry Reid in Nevada. Dems were scrambling to put the lock
on any last-minute undecided votes. |
Prediction: Wipeout!
10:00amEST, 2nd Nov. 2010
Nothing unexpected has derailed the anti-establishment momentum
which now looks like redefining the State and the nature of politics:
It's not looking pretty for Election Day:
| Quote: | A new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey showed 75% of Americans
say things are going badly in the nation, the highest percentage for a
midterm election since the question was first asked in the 1970s. |
We are on track for a historic event. What makes it historic is not the
attempted clammy embrace of the GOP wrapped round the Tea Party.
It's the historic rejection of the NWO's mega-marketed stooge Obama.
It's the historic rejection of the NWO's Big (Corporate) Government.
It's the historic rejection of the NWO's Corrupt Banking Cartel.
It's the historic rejection of the NWO's Fiat Fed Scam.
Not bad for one day's work. Some likely highlights:
- Harry Reid may be one of the high-profile victims of the revolt.
Sharron Angle now looks increasingly likely to edge him out.
- Republicans to gain 55+ seats in the House, dethroning Nancy Pelosi.
- In the Senate, a GOP gain of eight seats, falling short of the 10 needed.
- Cannabis Proposition 19 in California looks set to fail narrowly.
All this assumes that polls are accurate on the popular sentiment.
But if there is a stronger momentum which the polls are not picking
up, then Prop 19, WV and the control of the Senate are up for grabs.
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Fintan
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| Posted: Tue Nov 02, 2010 2:50 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | A Little Lady Predicts a Big Win
The Republican tide may even reach the Jersey Shore.
The Wall Street Journal: October 30, 2010
Well, I think we know where this one’s going. The polls came like waves this week. Independents breaking hard for the GOP, those making under $50,000 going Republican, the party has a 20% lead among college graduates.
Gallup says 2010 is looking better than the year of the last great sweep, with 55% of respondents now saying they are Republican or lean Republican. It was 49% in 1994.
RealClearPolitics has 222 House seats going to the Republicans, 175 to Democrats, and 38 toss-ups, of which 36 are currently held by the Democrats. The president’s approval numbers remain well below 50%, and Congress’s disapproval numbers above 70%.
Let’s say the polls are pretty correct. If they are, two big facts present themselves. One is that the Obama coalition broke under pressure. We’ll see if they regroup. America turns on a dime, we’re in a time of quick and constant change. But Barack Obama’s lines have been broken.
On the other side, not only is a big Republican wave coming, but a rough coalition seems to be forming. It is the coalition that did not come together in 2006 to save Congress for the GOP, and did not come together in ‘08 to elect John McCain. The tea party saved the Republican Party by, among other things, re-energizing it. But it’s also becoming clear the tea party did so without turning off the center.
This is news. Six months ago the common wisdom was that the tea party was going to scare independent voters and make them run screaming from the tent. “There was an awful man in an Uncle Sam hat and a woman talking about repealing some amendment. I can’t take it, Harry!”
But the center doesn’t appear to be scared. Maybe it doesn’t scare easy. Maybe getting scared is what happens next time, not this time. Or, my hunch, maybe the center, some of whose members have expressed a certain antipathy or standoffishness toward the tea party, simply doesn’t care that it feels a certain antipathy or standoffishness. Because such feelings are beside the point right now, a self-indulgence suited to less crisis-laden times. And we are in crisis. Our spending is ruinous, the demands of government are too great. It doesn’t matter if you like the style of those who want to turn it around, join them and try to turn it around. One of the things Rep. Paul Ryan says has seeped into the electorate: We have only a short time to fix things, we have to move now.
What’s rising now on the Republican side is big but not fully known and will evolve, will change itself and direct itself and maybe even settle some old issues as it goes forward in the next few years. It promises to be turbulent, and rich in meaning.
We’ll know in the early hours next Wednesday how it all turned out.
But here is one way you’ll know it’s huge: Anna Little wins in New Jersey. If she wins it means the Republican wave swept all before it.
Not that she’s expected to. She’s running for Congress in the Jersey Shore’s Sixth Congressional District, which went for Mr. Obama over Mr. McCain 60% to 38%. She’s the Republican mayor of Highlands, population 5,000, up against incumbent Frank Pallone, an 11-term Democratic veteran who won in 2008 by 35 points. A Monmouth University poll has her down seven points. On the bright side, numbers guru Nate Silver just increased her chances of winning from 2% to 5%, and Charlie Cook changed the listing of the race from safe Democrat to likely Democrat.
Ms. Little takes it in stride. She says she’s not looking at Obama’s numbers. “I’m looking at Chris Christie’s numbers.” The Republican governor carried the district by 8% last November.
This week, at Pier Village in Long Branch, Ms. Little called a last-minute rally. Fifty or 60 people showed up, pretty good for a rainy Wednesday at 11 a.m. Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele came through town to do the event with her. He represents the dreaded establishment, but they cheered him merrily.
Mr. Steele said, “Who you gonna fire?” The crowd yelled, “Nancy Pelosi!” “Who you gonna hire?” “Anna Little!”
When Ms. Little spoke the people in front had to lower their signs. She’s 4-foot-11½. She said, “It is my honor to be part of your grass-roots movement.” She said, “I’m gonna bring the Jersey shore to the Washington Beltway to straighten them out.” This got cheers. “A Jersey girl can take a California girl any day.” That got cheers too.
I talked to a Little supporter named Lois Pongo. The tea party and the Republican establishment are supposed to be at war, I said. No, she said, they’re working together. “We need to get into a place of cooperation. It can’t be we-they. The party has structure, knowledge, experience. The tea party has principles—not just the principles but the passion to restore our country.”
Ms. Little is confident of victory. She believes no one understands the mood of the voters this year: “No one’s noticed what’s going on.” The Democrats are “not in line with the people.” The No. 1 issues: jobs and the economy. After that, health care. “You have government and insurance companies together directing what kind of insurance must be purchased by an individual or employer.” Her opponent, as head of a House subcommittee on health care, was a major supporter of ObamaCare. It caused tumultuous town-hall meetings in August 2009.
“I stand for private-sector job creation and economic growth,” Ms. Little says. “Get government out of the way. Individual liberty and freedom. A right to life that includes the right to direct your health care.”
Her campaign is a shoestring operation. She’s got four pickup trucks that tour around with her signs. She calls it “The Lawrence Welk Caravan: Anna 1, Anna 2, Anna 3 and Anna 4.” By the end of the campaign, she says, she and her volunteers will have knocked on 100,000 doors. She puts the figure at 90,059 as of Tuesday night.
In January 2010, she says, local tea-party leaders came to her and asked her to run for Congress as an independent. She said no. “It’s hard for an independent to win. It solidifies the position of the incumbent.” They asked her to run as a Republican. She agreed. But what if party leaders don’t pick you, they asked. She said she’d run in the primary, “on behalf of the grass-roots.”
Republican leaders did not choose her. So she ran for the GOP nomination against their candidate, a wealthy party contributor who was part of the organization, glamorous to the point of Palinesque, and self-funding. Ms. Little, with no money, won by 84 votes of 13,524 cast.
How did she do it? “I went door to door,” she said.
She agrees there is no civil war in the party—yet. All people want are solutions to our problems. “They don’t care who does it. They are happy to be in the Republican Party as long as it does not compromise its principles. . . . They will hug me and kiss me now, but they’ll be on top of me when it comes time for me to vote and they will hold my feet to the fire.”
She was asked if they call her the Little Engine That Could. “No,” she said. “They call me the Little Engine That Will.”
http://www.peggynoonan.com/ |
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Fintan
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| Posted: Tue Nov 02, 2010 6:25 pm Post subject: |
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Predictable race turns out as predicted.
| Quote: | Rand Paul Wins
Nov 2 2010, 7:03 PM ET
Projection for Paul: CNN is projecting Rand Paul has won. This is the first major victory for a Tea Party candidate tonight. Paul sealed it up in a race with high turnout, possibly around 48 percent.
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| Posted: Tue Nov 02, 2010 6:37 pm Post subject: |
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Democrat Manchin Looks Secure in WestVA. @ 7:30pmEST
Obama/Dem unpopularity swamped by
Manchin's 70%+ personal popularity rating.
And that likely ends the bid for a Senate surprise.
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| Posted: Tue Nov 02, 2010 6:58 pm Post subject: |
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Veteran Dem Rick Boucher Crashing In Virginia. @ 7:55pmEST
Boucher negotiated cap & trade passage.
Tough to explain in coal cntry.
Gonna be some selective bloodletting.
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| Posted: Tue Nov 02, 2010 7:03 pm Post subject: |
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Looks like radical Dem Alan Grayson is losing. @ 8:05pmEST
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| Posted: Tue Nov 02, 2010 7:09 pm Post subject: |
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Despite covert deployment of electoral witchcraft @ 8:10pmEST
| Quote: | Christine O'Donnell goes down in Delaware's Senate race.
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